Tag Archives: Technical Analysis

04/29/19 Status: Sell trend signal. Projection hit.

3-month focus chart.

Current market Predictions:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 4/29/18, bear trend signal. TSP (4/30) = waiting.  Downside 3-month bitcoin price forecast = Calculating.
  • $VIX signal, waiting. This is a new signal current trend is down. We are waiting for the first signal to start posting a chart.

Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: Bitcoin trend change signal comes after hitting our upside projection. The sell TSP should be higher than the entry (assuming tomorrows close is near today’s). So the model is still in synch with the market. The downside projection will be posted later. We plan to add a Vix signal as well. Volatility is another strange non-traditional market that should be benefitted by looking through the lens nonlinear analysis.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): Now we are looking for the cryptocurrency to move lower. The market has hit the upside projection and nonlinear analysis forecasts more weakness ahead.
  • $VIX forecast: Awaiting a fresh signal (this is a new venture). The market has been beaten down in the wake of S&P 500 strength. Currently the index habitats in the 12-13 range.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

04/12/19 Status: The Rocket kicked off (finally) in our direction!

3-month focus chart.

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21) = 4409.72. Upside 3-month bitcoin price forecast is 5250.

Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: This post was made Friday (April 12) midday, looking back at the chart updated through April 11. The great news is that the chaos nonlinear forces have finally kicked in and Bitcoin moved decisively higher. The “catch the falling knife” bull trend signal (11/20) is now “in the money.” We briefly kissed our nonlinear forecast projection (5250). Basically I am waiting for the projection to ratchet up of have a reversal signal. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Signs and Times: Since the Mueller investigation concluded, I think the Clintons have disappeared. I don’t see them in the media. It is as if a UFO came and collected them late one night. Or they could be hunkered down in a bunker surrounded by lawyers, carefully listening across the waters for Trump to yell “Starboard side, prepare to fire!”

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): Wow! Bitcoin rocketed up 25% in a month. We are now at our projection area warning this could be a toppy market. On the other hand, the trend is still pointed upward. So, I am waiting for either a trend signal change or an upward market projection to higher levels. The classic technician’s dilemma. For now the nonlinear process is still up.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

Trend up, but it isn’t a rocket!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72. Upside 3-month bitcoin forecast is $5250.00

3-month chart. Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: This post was made Saturday (March 23rd) looking back at the chart updated through March 22. The model is still under water from the “catch the falling knife” buy (11/20 signal) but the recent bounce off the early Feb lows looks convincing. The 5250 projection is northward (this is roughly in line with our previous projection). Incidentally we have recently added a Bitcoin price forecast to our comments, our research effort continues. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): The Bitcoin market trend has reversed to the upside following lows in mid-December and early February. We do have resistance ahead at the 4200 mark but the nonlinear projection of 5250 indicates this should be broken going forward. 

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

New Year trading outlook!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72.

3-month chart. Current price for 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: The was in good position for the November Bitcoin collapse, though the “catch the falling knife” buy (11/20 signal) was a little early, the downside momentum has dried up. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): The model “falling knife” bull trend signal was a little early but not irrelevant as following trading revealed the downside momentum was drying up. There are some associated positive fundamental factors at work here too. The recent stock market drubbing (flight to quality), interest rate drop (asset valuation enhancement) and financial stress for Bitcoin miners (at the sub 4000 level) are all in play right now. And the outlook for the trade currently? 6000!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

100414 – Zowie!

Model Gold Portfolio: Short, (signal=100114)

CTM141004Technical Read: Gold fell hard in Friday’s trading as longs didn’t want to wait for Monday to liquidate positions. The move established a breakdown from the previous trading range and undoubtable triggered many mechanical trend following systems. Our last two signals have the advantage of giving traders time to re-position before the trend change.  What now? This crack is sufficient to send reverberations through the system (margin calls feeding the selling), so we should see more selling ahead. We are chasing the mummy.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The leap in the dollar broke the back of the bulls and is going to make it hard for them to regroup going forward. Another issue: Currency trends have a reputation for lasting. This (again) is bearish for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 2 – Stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) did not help gold on Friday either. The explosive rally largely erased Wednesday’s significant selloff. Despite the recent equity gyrations, the Mummy considers the US equity market as neutral. This is bearish for gold now but will probably not be sustained.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar Mummy process for bonds. Treasuries halted their advance over the last couple of days. Our signal on this is neutral, so the Mummy is on the hunt for a new signal. A valuable signal for some institution. See the “Bond” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

100114 – Short Again!

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short, 100114 (from Neutral, 9/19 signal)

CTM141001Technical Read: Gold has been trying to form a trading bottom for almost 2 weeks, but it has been a sloppy, ill-defined bottom with not much conviction. Today my readings indicate the recent lows are not going to hold and Mummy watchers should expect lower prices ahead.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The dollar strength is throttling gold. Today gold managed an up day but one wonders if it would have been so if the S&P 500 hadn’t dropped 26 points. This is bearish for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 2 – The varied geo-political concerns (Hong Kong, Middle East and Ebola virus) are not really pumping the bulls here. The may provide some support going into a weekend. Mildly bullish.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond readings changed from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive signal.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

093014 – The Bears Press Their Attack

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (9/19 signal, exit short)

CTM140930Technical Read: Today’s gold trading was a turbulent affair. Overnight selling set the stage for a gap-down opening in COMEX trading. There was a morning rally but it failed by the end of the day.  At the close, GLD held at the approximate low levels of the recent pause. It was a long day for the bulls (not as long for the Mummy as our signal was neutral). My readings are not indicating significantly lower prices.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The strength of the US Dollar is pressuring gold prices and carries with it the whiff of global deflation (dollar strength and deflation are riding in the same car these days, unfortunately it is hearse). This is bearish for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 – Hong Kong demonstrations (and the police response) has taken less confrontational stance today as local politicians struggle to find a way out. This is bullish for gold as it is a new (and developing) situation.
  • Catalyst 3 – The verification of another victim of the Ebola virus in the US is probably not a market mover. But it does serve as a point of concern of thisng to come.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond readings changed from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive signal.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

092914 – Lows Narrowly Holding

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (9/19 signal)

CTM140929Technical Read: Gold traders prepared to start the week with renewed selling, however the bears did not manage rout the market. The yellow metal continued to hold the recent narrow range.  This combined with the over-extended nature of the previous decline gives the gold market a mild bullish edge on the technical read front.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The US Dollar trading uptrend continues to be a formidable headwind (bearish) for the gold market. During the weekend this appeared to be the dominant trading story on the metal, BUT…
  • Catalyst 2 – Political unrest in Chinese produced stunning images as youthful demonstrators clashed with government police forces, in Hong Kong, through a haze of teargas. The scene brought back memories of Tiananmen Square in 1989. By the end of the day, the protesters remained in the streets but the clash seemed to lose its edge. This outbreak to flared up and caught markets off guard as a new risk factor. This new piece on the global chessboard is bullish for gold.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond readings changed from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive signal. The Hong Kong unrest is positive (flight to quality) for US Treasuries and therefore supportive for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

 

092514 – Now What?

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (9/19 signal)

CTM140925Technical Read: Gold traders came into the day with a bearish disposition with pre-Comex trading down $9 dollars (see catalyst 1). Gold opened near the lows of the day. This level was a little lower than the previous near-term bottom (9/22). However, after triggering various sell-stops in place, the market rebounded (see catalyst 2) as sellers were unable to push their advantage. During the recent sustained downtrend, bears have become vulnerable to short-covering. With readings now neutral, traders can now enjoy the luxury of taking a moment to reflect on what the upcoming trend will be and prepare to take advantage of it.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The US Dollar broke out to the upside following a narrow trading that terminated on 9/16. The dollar-going-up theme (which is bearish for gold) was the dominant theme going into the day from European trading.
  • Catalyst 2 – Initial weakness in equities continued to accelerate during the day and at some point became supportive for gold. Traders began to question if being short gold was really a good idea ahead of a weekend with a possibility of an equity crash. My read is that stocks are not really in a bearish downtrend but today’s action did breakdown from a recent trading range. For now this is bullish for gold.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond signal moved from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive move. This is a white horse of sorts for bullish gold traders as it marks an end to the trend of rising rates.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

092314 – Downtrend Over

Model Portfolio: Neutral (9/19 signal)

CTM140923Technical Read: When a market (gold) trend becomes sustained in a certain direction, eventually the market trend gains a certain fragileness (i.e. becomes unsustainable). Then a catalyst event changes things and the traders (whom may have become complacent) find themselves caught by a reversal. I believe the trend has now changed and the downtrend is now over.  The good news is that the day after the signal, the market moved lower, thus providing a reasonable time for Mummy followers to exit their bearish positions.

Backdrop:

  • The bullish catalyst leading to Tuesday’s pop in the yellow metal, were the US airstrikes directed at ISIS/ISIL related targets in Syria. The widening of the conflict joins a loose confederation of regional anti-ISIS ground fighters with the heavy handed power of US airstrikes against the Islamic extremist forces. There is an added factor of some type or retaliation against the US (terrorism). Only time will tell how effective that will be. For now this is bullish for gold.
  • China’s (Flash) Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s index (PMI) proved a little more robust (50.5 versus 50.0) than expected. This is a positive for the world’s financial markets but there was considerable nervousness about a contractionary reading before the report came out. Concerns about deflation are negative for gold.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond signal went neutral. This is supportive for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com