Tag Archives: S&P 500 prediction

05/18/20 Bulls making the run at resistance!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction: $SPX (S&P 500), Bull.

Model notes: The system stayed bullish but the market has been rangebound, could this be it?

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): The market took some hits last week. Fed Powell’s comments seemed rather dour comments were not helpful. Hot-handed fund manager David Tepper warned of overvaluation concerns (you got to be careful of fund managers pronouncements, these guys usually are expected to be in and they use the old motto ‘buy the cannons, sell the trumpets’ motto). Everyone knows the shutdown, but now the county is restarting. The market tends to look ahead.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for other market signals (interest rates or something else). This model is more optimized to short-term market action. Option, anyone?

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Use nonlinear research to help determine the future direction of the S&P and trading can become much less complex.”

04/27/20 Nonlinear trend starting to look better.

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction: $SPX (S&P 500), Bull.

Model notes: The system is starting to like the trend better now. So, here we go. 

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Flat, SPX): The system now projects the market will hit 3100.00.  The states are now going to try to come back online at their individual populations. If you watch financial news networks it is pretty downcast as pundits are pretty much forced to project the current market metric compared to one quarter ago. But this is a known factor, the COVID virus and the following “lockdown” are obvious factors and fully discounted by the market participants. Using nonlinear analysis is one way to help get a handle on the future.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

04/20/20 Nonlinear analysis getting shaky, time to pull the plug!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction: $SPX (S&P 500), flat.

Model notes: System is generating a flat signal today. In the past, I have pretty much left the flat signals out in favor of having a directional opinion. However, this train of logic has changed with the most current version. 

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Flat, SPX): The market made a decent run at our non-linear projection. However, recent momentum moderation, the models are detecting problems ahead, but not enough to issue an outright sell. So the play is to step aside for now and look for a better re-entry

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

04/09/20 Aggressive selling is drying up, “V” shaped bottom now in place!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction: $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (v7.2), (03/31/20).

Model notes: Today’s post was published on 4/9 (morning) so the chart is only updated to the closing price of 4/8. The amazing thing is that we finished the v7.3 and now have the ability to show (periodically) projections! This goes along with our bold goal to make trading simpler by knowing the future of the S&P 500.  

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): The non-linear outlook is pretty good. The recent signal is bullish and the projection is still pointing higher (to the tune of 2500). On the linear side, prices have broken above MA25, indicating the near-term trend is up. Technically the March 23 low appears to be a “V” shaped bottom. The news outlets have managed scare all the people they can into selling. Only the buyers are left. Beware left-leaning news organizations as they have a vested interest (anti-Trump) to portray a bleak future.  

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

03/31/20 Aggressive selling is drying up, some type of bottom now in place!

1-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction: $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (v7.2), (03/31/20).

Model notes: We continue to struggle with sheer selling power of the market driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The new version (7.20) should handle some of the more emotional drive actions on the S&P 500. I am very excited to see the new submodule in action.  

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): This is it, the market has put in some type of stable bottom as aggressive selling is drying up.  Market participants have been given some timeframes for getting the country back up and running. President Trump first mentioned maybe Easter, then later seemed to indicate the end of April. In either case, a solid timeframe gives the beaten down market a goal to shoot for.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

01/23/20 Seller have a go, but no reversal yet!

1-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (01/06/20), TTP= 3237.18

Current price for CTM research (signals), $20,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: We are still on track with our 2020 signal. Prices broke out, climbed higher, we seem to be pausing but the signal is still prescient.  I continue to have faith in chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis approach. I am pretty excited about where we are on the models.

What does the S&P 500 say about … Trump impeachment? Market usually hate uncertainty, so the uptrend seems to be indicating the Democratic pseudo-coup not going to succeed.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): Someone hit the “pause” button on the new year’s rise. On the other hand, the current market action does not seem to look like a reversal.  Nonlinear trend / Chaotic trend analysis is indicating the uptrend is still in place, So let’s see if the pause starts to resolve upwards.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

01/17/20 Breakout!

1-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (01/06/20), TTP= Close of Tuesday

Current price for CTM research (signals), $20,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: I am showing our 2020 trading as I have updated the system for the new year. The Jan 6 signal has us back on track. We are now seeing the market breakout and we are on it. I continue to have faith in chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis approach. I am pretty excited about where we are on the modes.

What does the S&P 500 say about … WWIII with Iran? The S&P 500 breakout signals that the market is putting Iran concerns behind it. The latest “big view” news is China moving forward with new trade deal and it is well received so far. Democrat pundits are losing steam pushing the WWIII narrative, they seem like they are simply trying to bash Trump, not provide a accurate reflection of the situation.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): The breakout for the new year is punching higher. Nonlinear trend / Chaotic trend analysis is indicating the uptrend is still in place, so we are not seeing overbought readings yet. Let’s see what next week brings but it should include higher prices.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2020, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

01/6/20 Leaving a losing call.

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (01/06/20), TTP= Close of Tuesday

Previous market prediction:

$SPX (S&P 500), Bear-trend signal (12/02/19), TTP= 3093.20

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The October signal was great but the December signal not so much. Chaotic based systems tend to be carefully balanced, still market gyrations can “fake out” a sophisticated system. We will continue to ponder the signal action versus the market action. I continue to have faith in chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis approach. Anyway, more to follow.

What does the S&P 500 say about … the drone strike on Soleimani? Friday’s news caused a sell-off in stocks but there was limited follow through. The news is not accurately reflecting the affection the general population had for this guy and the government is really looking to save face. They do not have a winning hand.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): At this point we expect the market to quickly recover from the geo-political turbulence from the drone strike and resume the upward move. Look for a near-term breakout to signal the uptrend is back on.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.

”GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

12/6/19 This signal turned into a knife fight!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bear-trend signal (12/02/19), TTP= 3093.20

Previous market prediction:

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The October signal was rewarded by a relatively painless (meaning limited reactions to the trend) 90 points in short order. The December signal looks to be more of a knife fight, as our TTP day came at the END of a significant two-day sell off, not before it, thus putting the current TTP underwater immediately. (note: the faster signal came before). I look forward to the fight, we have the Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis to guide us through this.

What does the S&P 500 say about … impeachment? Friday’s move up suggests the vote next week is not troubling.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bearish, SPX): Let me reiterate the obvious first:  nonlinear / chaotic systems have turned negative. So we expect a trading range but really weaker.  to a down movement. Friday’s up-day puts the market in a vulnerable situation. The three-day rally is up against the previous closing high on Nov 27. So limited upside with indications of lower prices should have the bears considering their plays.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

10/25/19 S&P 500 closes above recent high close!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current market Predictions:

$SPX (S&P 500), non-linear model indicates that the trading trend is now up for this index. Today (10/18/19) is the signal day. The closing price on Monday (10/21).  TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) = 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The model is looking good. Price closed at a new recent high 5 trading days after signal date. Chaotic trend analysis is giving us the edge in time-series prediction.

What? The impeachment effort is starting to look more like the Crazy Train.  So far, it’s not holding the market back.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 Index forecast (SPX): The trading trend made significant technical progress this week with Friday’s breakout close. Nonlinear indicators are still bullish.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 index trading.”