Tag Archives: Nonlinear trading

04/29/19 Status: Sell trend signal. Projection hit.

3-month focus chart.

Current market Predictions:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 4/29/18, bear trend signal. TSP (4/30) = waiting.  Downside 3-month bitcoin price forecast = Calculating.
  • $VIX signal, waiting. This is a new signal current trend is down. We are waiting for the first signal to start posting a chart.

Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: Bitcoin trend change signal comes after hitting our upside projection. The sell TSP should be higher than the entry (assuming tomorrows close is near today’s). So the model is still in synch with the market. The downside projection will be posted later. We plan to add a Vix signal as well. Volatility is another strange non-traditional market that should be benefitted by looking through the lens nonlinear analysis.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): Now we are looking for the cryptocurrency to move lower. The market has hit the upside projection and nonlinear analysis forecasts more weakness ahead.
  • $VIX forecast: Awaiting a fresh signal (this is a new venture). The market has been beaten down in the wake of S&P 500 strength. Currently the index habitats in the 12-13 range.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

04/12/19 Status: The Rocket kicked off (finally) in our direction!

3-month focus chart.

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21) = 4409.72. Upside 3-month bitcoin price forecast is 5250.

Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: This post was made Friday (April 12) midday, looking back at the chart updated through April 11. The great news is that the chaos nonlinear forces have finally kicked in and Bitcoin moved decisively higher. The “catch the falling knife” bull trend signal (11/20) is now “in the money.” We briefly kissed our nonlinear forecast projection (5250). Basically I am waiting for the projection to ratchet up of have a reversal signal. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Signs and Times: Since the Mueller investigation concluded, I think the Clintons have disappeared. I don’t see them in the media. It is as if a UFO came and collected them late one night. Or they could be hunkered down in a bunker surrounded by lawyers, carefully listening across the waters for Trump to yell “Starboard side, prepare to fire!”

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): Wow! Bitcoin rocketed up 25% in a month. We are now at our projection area warning this could be a toppy market. On the other hand, the trend is still pointed upward. So, I am waiting for either a trend signal change or an upward market projection to higher levels. The classic technician’s dilemma. For now the nonlinear process is still up.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

Trend up, but it isn’t a rocket!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72. Upside 3-month bitcoin forecast is $5250.00

3-month chart. Current price for a 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: This post was made Saturday (March 23rd) looking back at the chart updated through March 22. The model is still under water from the “catch the falling knife” buy (11/20 signal) but the recent bounce off the early Feb lows looks convincing. The 5250 projection is northward (this is roughly in line with our previous projection). Incidentally we have recently added a Bitcoin price forecast to our comments, our research effort continues. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): The Bitcoin market trend has reversed to the upside following lows in mid-December and early February. We do have resistance ahead at the 4200 mark but the nonlinear projection of 5250 indicates this should be broken going forward. 

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

Never sell a dull market!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72.

3-month chart. Current price for 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: This post was made mid-day on March 8 showing EOD chart from March 7th. Model is still in the bull trend mode. The “catch the falling knife” buy (11/20 signal) was a little early, and is still under water but the situation is becoming more positive. Recent nonlinear projections are looking north of the recent 3-mo closing high (approx. 4200). 5000 is not out of the question. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): The fading volatility seen in Jan and early Feb has resolved itself to the upside with near-term trading breaking out above the 3-month down trend line. As stated earlier the nonlinear models are now projecting toward the 5000 range.  So we are not looking for the 4200 resistance point to hold. 

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

New Year trading outlook!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72.

3-month chart. Current price for 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: The was in good position for the November Bitcoin collapse, though the “catch the falling knife” buy (11/20 signal) was a little early, the downside momentum has dried up. The model is still in-synch with the trading.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin forecast ($NYXBT): The model “falling knife” bull trend signal was a little early but not irrelevant as following trading revealed the downside momentum was drying up. There are some associated positive fundamental factors at work here too. The recent stock market drubbing (flight to quality), interest rate drop (asset valuation enhancement) and financial stress for Bitcoin miners (at the sub 4000 level) are all in play right now. And the outlook for the trade currently? 6000!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

It is hard to catch a falling knife!

Current Cryptocurrency Prediction:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP (11/21)= 4409.72.

3-month chart. Current price for 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: The model caught most of the power slide, entering long just a couple days too soon. Still a look over the past three months reveals a very positive, prescient model.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the trading day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bitcoin Forecast (Bullish) ($NYXBT): The model took a swing at catching the “falling knife.” We got in a lot closer to the bottom than the previous top. Further good news is that the math indicates the 3700 level will provide stable support. Finally, recent downside volatility seems to be drying up.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

Model scores with recent short signal, issues a bull trend signal!

Current Model (version 4.0) positions:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 11/20/18, bull trend signal. TSP will be the close of Nov 21, 2018.

 

3-month chart. Current price for 4 symbol package = $7,500 quarterly.

Model notes: The model spent the majority of the last 3 months on the short side of the cryptocurrency market and it was that was definitely the side you wanted to be on. The model seems to be in synch with the market, and for a model builder, it is a good feeling.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Bull Trend Signal ($NYXBT): The cryptocurrency broke down after trading in an extended range. But after almost 2 weeks of fairly muscular selling, the nonlinear models indicate the selling pressure is over. Current bears may want to be looking to book some profits.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

V4.x swings back to bearish.

Current Model (version 4.x) positions:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 10/16/18, bear trend signal. TSP will be the close of the following trading day.

 

 

 

 

Model notes: V4.x the previous signal was a little shorter than usual. Models need to be flexible enough to be able to adjust with probable trend changes.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

Bear Trend Signal ($NYXBT): The models now are signaling a retest of the 6000 level.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

V4.x issues a bull trend signal!

Current Model (version 4.x) positions:

  • $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 10/09/18, bull trend signal. TSP will be the close of the following trading day.

Model notes: V4.x is rolling along and the current signal change for the uptrend is lower than the sell (hopefully the official TSPs will be too). I am looking forward to the recent upgrades helping us call the markets with improved accuracy.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

Bull Trend Signal ($NYXBT): Prices fell after making near-term highs on Sept 4. But by mid-month prices seem to have stabilized. The models are sensing the buyers will be moving into position to make a push.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”

V4.2 issues a bear trend signal!

Current Model (version 4.2) positions:

·         $NYXBT (Bitcoin), 8/28/18 , bear trend  signal. TSP will be the close of Aug 29, 2018.

 Model notes: V4.2 is now online. The exciting news about this version is that early indications are that the new degree of freedom added will give us the sophistication to deal with the market complexity. This has been an issue in some of the recent iterations. Great news and I am very excited.

 Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

 Nonlinear Trading Themes:

·        Bear Trend Signal ($NYXBT): Prices are near 3-week highs, so the model is selling into short-term strength. Overall, Bitcoin has been in a trading range since July.  

 

Observation: We now have the new fee structure in place (check the l “Fees” tab for details). Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in bitcoin trading.”