Tag Archives: S&P 500 trading signals

Holding in There (GLD)

Model Notes: I want to introduce a technical term on the ConquertheMummy website: TSP (theoretical signal price). It is calculated by simply using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. Let’s look at the recent gold signal. The market closed on Sept 8th (I use US closing prices for calculation purposes), then I run the models that evening. A buy signal was generated and that information was posted using the comments and a graph. The signal day is 9/08 but the TSP ends up being the closing price of Sept 9th (106.13 GLD basis). Why bring this up? Two reasons, it is one of the nuances that concerns model makers, and I may bring it up in discussion from time to time.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08, (USD) Exit Long = 9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150915gGold: GLD broke through the 107 support level but pretty much ran out of steam then. So put another way, today’s close was very near the current TSP (see, I put it in!). The yellow metal is waiting for a clearer read on the interest rate picture (I.E. the Fed action). The current read is no action this month but I must admit that rates went up firmly today, so bond traders have some nervousness to the contrary. The model gold portfolio remains long.
  • CTM150915uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar is languishing ahead of the Fed announcement. With global criticism of a US rate hike and Chinese volatility it is doubtful that action will come this month. Technically, the greenback is range-bound. US Dollar portfolio remains flat.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Sagging After the Exit (USD)

Model Notes: Both models are behaving well. The US dollar broke south at the end of the week, after selling on Tuesday. The gold model issued a buy on 9/08 (after the close), so the purchase day would be 9/09 (closing price was 106.13, GLD basis), Friday’s close was almost identical. The upcoming week will give us a better sense of whether this is a low or not.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  Buy 9/08, USD = Exit Long  9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150911gGold: GLD pierced the 107 level (bad) but managed to hold after the drop day 9/09 the rest of the week (good for bulls) drifted down to find support at the 107 level. Readings are still supportive.  The model gold portfolio remains long.
  • CTM150911uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The greenback staggered during the closing trades of the week. Dollar bulls flinched after looking into ‘don’t rock the boat’ Yellan’s eyes for any sign of stern resolve to raise rates on the back of World Bank criticism. US Dollar portfolio remains flat.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Double Thinking the Fed Hike (GLD, USD)

Model Notes: The models are preforming well. Both gold and the US dollar results seem to hint the Fed is going to delay the rate hike.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  Buy 9/08, USD = Exit Long  9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150908gGold: GLD drifted down to find support at the 107 level. The readings suggest the next move will be up, (probably on a delay by the Fed). The model gold portfolio moves long today.
  • CTM150908uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar failed to break north of the 96.50 level. The World Bank chief economist, Kaushik Basu (who?), warned of global problems if the Fed raises rates. Americans are not particularly fond of advice from foreign institutions but Yellan seems to have a strain of ‘don’t rock the boat’ in her and the dollar bulls are rethinking the likelihood of a near-term hike. US Dollar portfolio is flat (exit long) as of today’s data.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Ahead of the 3-day Weekend (GLD, USD)

Model Notes: The models are doing well. The exit of gold preceded lower prices. The dollar has rebounded much better than most markets from August crash lows. I am planning to use more currency markets as featured markets as CTM makes a push to analyze forex markets.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150904gGold: The yellow metal gave up ground heading into the tail end of the week. This is a hint that US related markets are probably not going to vaporize next week. I am looking for 107 to hold. The model gold portfolio is still flat.
  • CTM150904uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): Recent dollar trading does not look like it is setting up for a downside reversal. Instead, the greenback traders look expectantly for a Fed 25bp tighten. I think the central bank stance of perma-dovishness is now causing more problems than it solves. A quick “one and done” 25 bp tighten is in the cards. This is what the gold and dollar models are pointing towards. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Lackluster Rally (GLD)

Model Notes: The models continue to grapple with the new volatility of the models. Current price levels are near previous signals levels.  The gold model is maneuvering to get on the right side. This is great compared to the oversold ‘vapor’ locks of the past.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Equities (again) for November. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Exit long today 9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150901gGold: We have an exit long signal today on the yellow metal. GLD put in a very lackluster rally over the last four days despite a very lethal drop in stock prices today. The news drumbeat is very deflation oriented. China slowing, Canada now in technical recession and a grim-faced Legarde intoning for us to expect growth downgrades in the European future are a pretty sobering pack of wolves. Maybe Lagarde (IMF managing director) is getting ahead of bad news she knows is coming. The model gold portfolio is now flat.
  • CTM150901uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index sold off modestly against a scary global equity drop. The greenback could be seen as a safe-haven of sorts going forward. We see higher prices ahead as being likely. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency (Forex) Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Is Anyone’s Neck sore?  (GLD, SPX, VIX and USD)

System Notes: The extreme (black swan-ish) equity meltdown proved a challenge for the market as well as the models. On the plus side, I took the opportunity to make some small enhancements to (hopefully) give the CTM models the edge next time. I will cease posting the equity charts with this post as the next rotation will feature the US dollar for September. To have the last equity signal for August to be a buy seems comforting.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Equities (again) for November. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Buy 8/25, S&P 500= Buy 8/28, VIX=Sell 8/28, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150828gGold: The yellow metal advanced against a backdrop of extreme equity volatility. Recent price action suggests a stair-step in support. 106 mid-month and 107 at the end. The model gold portfolio remains long.
  • CTM150828sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps signaled a buy today as the models are projecting a mostly complete return to pre-meltdown levels. Next week is a holiday shortened period. The S&P 500 portfolio is now long.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Predictably, as this market tends to be inverse the S&P 500, the VIX portfolio is now short.
  • CTM150828uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index model bought on weakness of the green back but the dollar went lower. Now the US currency is about at the sme level. I did not get sell readings so I am looking for higher prices. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Models Maneuver to get in Sync  (GLD, SPX, VIX and USD)

System Notes: The equity meltdown we are experiencing is a type of ‘black swan’ event . So how did the models do? Gold did the best as the yellow metal model was flat before the event. Equities were caught on the wrong side of the move, destroying a mostly positive (i.e. most of the days were north of the buy signal) August. Oh well. I am removing the VIX chart for the rest of the month as I have added the upcoming USD chart. I will post the signals for VIX for the rest of the month, just not produce a chart to show them.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational. Starting USD early!

Model Portfolios: Gold = Buy 8/25, S&P 500= Neutral 8/25, VIX=Neutral 8/25, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150825gGold: The yellow metal now goes on a buy. The effect is a counter trend buy against a longer term uptrend. The model gold portfolio signals long today.
  • CTM150825sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps have just died since Tuesday. The model goes flat today as the market is now both in a technical downtrend yet at the same time oversold. The combination of western over indebtedness and Chinese deceleration have put stocks in a very precarious situation. Tuesday’s failed rally is also disturbing sign of weakness. The S&P 500 portfolio is now flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Our model was also on the wrong side of the volatility spike. The VIX portfolio is now flat.
  • CTM150825uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index buy came amidst the equity meltdown. The model picked up the buy on Aug 20th. Prices moved lower on the following two days but Tuesday’s reversal is still intact. It is not inconceivable buyers will come into the dollar against a backdrop of global fear. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Global Deflation Fears Roil Stocks (and everything else) (GLD, SPX, VIX and USD)

System Notes: The equity meltdown has changed the current trends (at least in the short-term. Equity-related pain has provided one “silver” lining: an opportunity to take our first public currency trade and set up for the featured September market, The USD starts with a buy.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational. Starting USD early!

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat 8/17, S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX=Sell 7/27, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150820gGold: It is great not to be short. Gold is bounding higher on the equity meltdown. The model gold portfolio is flat today.
  • CTM150820sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps gave up the ghost Thursday, pushing the current signal to its first losing close versus the 7/27 signal. I am eager to see how the models judge this. Have we hit a short-term bottom? The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150820v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Volatility bulls love an equity selloff like this. Is there anything tradable here? Probably not yet. VIX portfolio is still bearish.
  • CTM150820uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): I wanted to get this signal going before Sept 1, so that we would enjoy a full September of currency speculation. The stock meltdown has afforded a good opportunity to buy. US Dollar portfolio is now bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold Model Goes Flat (GLD)

System Notes: The gold signal goes flat after four days short. This is good from a system standpoint, as it indicates the indicators have the flexibility to get out of a position that is acting dubious (as opposed to hanging on and getting throttled). Equity models are preforming well, current prices are positive versus their recent signals.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat= 8/17 (new signal), S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150817gGold: The gold model played the sell-the-breakout card (8/11), but covered today. Technically, if you fade a breakout you want the market to show weakness relatively soon. The model gold portfolio is now flat today.
  • CTM150817sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps are now at the top of the past two-week trading range. The Mummy is looking for higher prices. A close above 2120 (SPX basis) would be a good start. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150817v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): The VIX actually closed up a few cents on a day the S&P 500 rose almost 10 points (not normal). This thing is trading like staggered boxer who has been punched too much. The volatility index will only get true direction when the S&P 500 does. I am looking for lower values. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

S&P holds, Gold Reverses (SPX, GLD)

System Notes: The spike after the gold model sell was jarring but did allow traders who planned on taking the bearish signal a chance to get short. Equity signals continue to be on the right side of their respective markets. Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is our staple. I will have further comments on the feature rotation next week.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Sell 8/11, S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150813gGold: Gold popped after the signal but had a significant downside reversal today. The yellow metal is overbought. In the absence of some type of destructive geo-political event, more selling is expected. The model gold portfolio is short.
  • CTM150813sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps managed to push below the near-term support (2065 S&P 500 basis) during intraday trading on 8/12, but rallied up to close positive by the end of day. Today’s trading was directionless. However you cut it, the support level is holding. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150813v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Vix ticked lower (despite a mildly negative day for stocks), indicating the volatility index is not sensing a significant sell-off in the wind. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”