Double Thinking the Fed Hike (GLD, USD)

Model Notes: The models are preforming well. Both gold and the US dollar results seem to hint the Fed is going to delay the rate hike.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  Buy 9/08, USD = Exit Long  9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150908gGold: GLD drifted down to find support at the 107 level. The readings suggest the next move will be up, (probably on a delay by the Fed). The model gold portfolio moves long today.
  • CTM150908uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar failed to break north of the 96.50 level. The World Bank chief economist, Kaushik Basu (who?), warned of global problems if the Fed raises rates. Americans are not particularly fond of advice from foreign institutions but Yellan seems to have a strain of ‘don’t rock the boat’ in her and the dollar bulls are rethinking the likelihood of a near-term hike. US Dollar portfolio is flat (exit long) as of today’s data.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”