Ahead of the 3-day Weekend (GLD, USD)

Model Notes: The models are doing well. The exit of gold preceded lower prices. The dollar has rebounded much better than most markets from August crash lows. I am planning to use more currency markets as featured markets as CTM makes a push to analyze forex markets.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150904gGold: The yellow metal gave up ground heading into the tail end of the week. This is a hint that US related markets are probably not going to vaporize next week. I am looking for 107 to hold. The model gold portfolio is still flat.
  • CTM150904uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): Recent dollar trading does not look like it is setting up for a downside reversal. Instead, the greenback traders look expectantly for a Fed 25bp tighten. I think the central bank stance of perma-dovishness is now causing more problems than it solves. A quick “one and done” 25 bp tighten is in the cards. This is what the gold and dollar models are pointing towards. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”