Lackluster Rally (GLD)

Model Notes: The models continue to grapple with the new volatility of the models. Current price levels are near previous signals levels.  The gold model is maneuvering to get on the right side. This is great compared to the oversold ‘vapor’ locks of the past.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Equities (again) for November. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Exit long today 9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150901gGold: We have an exit long signal today on the yellow metal. GLD put in a very lackluster rally over the last four days despite a very lethal drop in stock prices today. The news drumbeat is very deflation oriented. China slowing, Canada now in technical recession and a grim-faced Legarde intoning for us to expect growth downgrades in the European future are a pretty sobering pack of wolves. Maybe Lagarde (IMF managing director) is getting ahead of bad news she knows is coming. The model gold portfolio is now flat.
  • CTM150901uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index sold off modestly against a scary global equity drop. The greenback could be seen as a safe-haven of sorts going forward. We see higher prices ahead as being likely. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”