Gold Model Goes Flat (GLD)

System Notes: The gold signal goes flat after four days short. This is good from a system standpoint, as it indicates the indicators have the flexibility to get out of a position that is acting dubious (as opposed to hanging on and getting throttled). Equity models are preforming well, current prices are positive versus their recent signals.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat= 8/17 (new signal), S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150817gGold: The gold model played the sell-the-breakout card (8/11), but covered today. Technically, if you fade a breakout you want the market to show weakness relatively soon. The model gold portfolio is now flat today.
  • CTM150817sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps are now at the top of the past two-week trading range. The Mummy is looking for higher prices. A close above 2120 (SPX basis) would be a good start. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150817v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): The VIX actually closed up a few cents on a day the S&P 500 rose almost 10 points (not normal). This thing is trading like staggered boxer who has been punched too much. The volatility index will only get true direction when the S&P 500 does. I am looking for lower values. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”