Model Notes: The models are still on track, with both gold and the US dollar exhibiting positive performance (i.e. both markets are higher than their TPSs). The Fed action (or inaction) is behind us. China and a possible US Government showdown may be the geo-political factors the models have to deal with in the near-term.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational. Going forward, I will be looking for a pre-October signal for bonds.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: Gold bounced off support at the mid-September base (105.50 GLD basis) and the recent selling days on the 21^st and 22^nd have not reversed that. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar’s knee-jerk reaction to the Fed decision proved to be an excellent trading buy point. The greenback is now at the top of the three-week trading range. Current indications are not for a reversal. The US dollar portfolio is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The Fed action sent gold higher (we were positive on that) and sent the dollar lower (we were flat on that). So the models, and their recent signals, seem to be in good shape. Remember, the TSP (theoretical signal price) is calculated by simply using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational. I plan to alter the price structure of the services I offer in the next week or so.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Long = 9/17 (TSP=waiting)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal loved the decision, a trend to higher rates would have been quite a headwind. “Don’t rock the boat” Yellen is now caught in a tough place. If she needs council, I guess the World Bank is ready to lend a …mouth. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar’s knee-jerk reaction was to sell-off. That is the technical result of no rate hike but the dollar still has some advantages (US economy and possibly a future rate hike). The model issued a buy based on today’s data. Technically, the greenback is oversold, with the next move likely to be a bounce. The US dollar portfolio is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: I want to introduce a technical term on the ConquertheMummy website: TSP (theoretical signal price). It is calculated by simply using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. Let’s look at the recent gold signal. The market closed on Sept 8^th (I use US closing prices for calculation purposes), then I run the models that evening. A buy signal was generated and that information was posted using the comments and a graph. The signal day is 9/08 but the TSP ends up being the closing price of Sept 9^th (106.13 GLD basis). Why bring this up? Two reasons, it is one of the nuances that concerns model makers, and I may bring it up in discussion from time to time.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08, (USD) Exit Long = 9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: GLD broke through the 107 support level but pretty much ran out of steam then. So put another way, today’s close was very near the current TSP (see, I put it in!). The yellow metal is waiting for a clearer read on the interest rate picture (I.E. the Fed action). The current read is no action this month but I must admit that rates went up firmly today, so bond traders have some nervousness to the contrary. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar is languishing ahead of the Fed announcement. With global criticism of a US rate hike and Chinese volatility it is doubtful that action will come this month. Technically, the greenback is range-bound. US Dollar portfolio remains flat.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: Both models are behaving well. The US dollar broke south at the end of the week, after selling on Tuesday. The gold model issued a buy on 9/08 (after the close), so the purchase day would be 9/09 (closing price was 106.13, GLD basis), Friday’s close was almost identical. The upcoming week will give us a better sense of whether this is a low or not.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  Buy 9/08, USD = Exit Long  9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: GLD pierced the 107 level (bad) but managed to hold after the drop day 9/09 the rest of the week (good for bulls) drifted down to find support at the 107 level. Readings are still supportive.  The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The greenback staggered during the closing trades of the week. Dollar bulls flinched after looking into ‘don’t rock the boat’ Yellan’s eyes for any sign of stern resolve to raise rates on the back of World Bank criticism. US Dollar portfolio remains flat.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The models are preforming well. Both gold and the US dollar results seem to hint the Fed is going to delay the rate hike.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  Buy 9/08, USD = Exit Long  9/08

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: GLD drifted down to find support at the 107 level. The readings suggest the next move will be up, (probably on a delay by the Fed). The model gold portfolio moves long today.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar failed to break north of the 96.50 level. The World Bank chief economist, Kaushik Basu (who?), warned of global problems if the Fed raises rates. Americans are not particularly fond of advice from foreign institutions but Yellan seems to have a strain of ‘don’t rock the boat’ in her and the dollar bulls are rethinking the likelihood of a near-term hike. US Dollar portfolio is flat (exit long) as of today’s data.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The models are doing well. The exit of gold preceded lower prices. The dollar has rebounded much better than most markets from August crash lows. I am planning to use more currency markets as featured markets as CTM makes a push to analyze forex markets.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold =  9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal gave up ground heading into the tail end of the week. This is a hint that US related markets are probably not going to vaporize next week. I am looking for 107 to hold. The model gold portfolio is still flat.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): Recent dollar trading does not look like it is setting up for a downside reversal. Instead, the greenback traders look expectantly for a Fed 25bp tighten. I think the central bank stance of perma-dovishness is now causing more problems than it solves. A quick “one and done” 25 bp tighten is in the cards. This is what the gold and dollar models are pointing towards. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The models continue to grapple with the new volatility of the models. Current price levels are near previous signals levels.  The gold model is maneuvering to get on the right side. This is great compared to the oversold ‘vapor’ locks of the past.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Equities (again) for November. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Exit long today 9/01, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: We have an exit long signal today on the yellow metal. GLD put in a very lackluster rally over the last four days despite a very lethal drop in stock prices today. The news drumbeat is very deflation oriented. China slowing, Canada now in technical recession and a grim-faced Legarde intoning for us to expect growth downgrades in the European future are a pretty sobering pack of wolves. Maybe Lagarde (IMF managing director) is getting ahead of bad news she knows is coming. The model gold portfolio is now flat.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index sold off modestly against a scary global equity drop. The greenback could be seen as a safe-haven of sorts going forward. We see higher prices ahead as being likely. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Currency (Forex) Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

System Notes: The extreme (black swan-ish) equity meltdown proved a challenge for the market as well as the models. On the plus side, I took the opportunity to make some small enhancements to (hopefully) give the CTM models the edge next time. I will cease posting the equity charts with this post as the next rotation will feature the US dollar for September. To have the last equity signal for August to be a buy seems comforting.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Equities (again) for November. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Buy 8/25, S&P 500= Buy 8/28, VIX=Sell 8/28, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal advanced against a backdrop of extreme equity volatility. Recent price action suggests a stair-step in support. 106 mid-month and 107 at the end. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• S&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps signaled a buy today as the models are projecting a mostly complete return to pre-meltdown levels. Next week is a holiday shortened period. The S&P 500 portfolio is now long.
• $VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Predictably, as this market tends to be inverse the S&P 500, the VIX portfolio is now short.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index model bought on weakness of the green back but the dollar went lower. Now the US currency is about at the sme level. I did not get sell readings so I am looking for higher prices. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
• We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”