Tag Archives: Time-series

01/6/20 Leaving a losing call.

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (01/06/20), TTP= Close of Tuesday

Previous market prediction:

$SPX (S&P 500), Bear-trend signal (12/02/19), TTP= 3093.20

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The October signal was great but the December signal not so much. Chaotic based systems tend to be carefully balanced, still market gyrations can “fake out” a sophisticated system. We will continue to ponder the signal action versus the market action. I continue to have faith in chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis approach. Anyway, more to follow.

What does the S&P 500 say about … the drone strike on Soleimani? Friday’s news caused a sell-off in stocks but there was limited follow through. The news is not accurately reflecting the affection the general population had for this guy and the government is really looking to save face. They do not have a winning hand.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bullish, SPX): At this point we expect the market to quickly recover from the geo-political turbulence from the drone strike and resume the upward move. Look for a near-term breakout to signal the uptrend is back on.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.

”GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

12/6/19 This signal turned into a knife fight!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current S&P 500 Prediction (slow model): $SPX (S&P 500), Bear-trend signal (12/02/19), TTP= 3093.20

Previous market prediction:

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The October signal was rewarded by a relatively painless (meaning limited reactions to the trend) 90 points in short order. The December signal looks to be more of a knife fight, as our TTP day came at the END of a significant two-day sell off, not before it, thus putting the current TTP underwater immediately. (note: the faster signal came before). I look forward to the fight, we have the Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis to guide us through this.

What does the S&P 500 say about … impeachment? Friday’s move up suggests the vote next week is not troubling.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

S&P 500 forecast (Bearish, SPX): Let me reiterate the obvious first:  nonlinear / chaotic systems have turned negative. So we expect a trading range but really weaker.  to a down movement. Friday’s up-day puts the market in a vulnerable situation. The three-day rally is up against the previous closing high on Nov 27. So limited upside with indications of lower prices should have the bears considering their plays.

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the future direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

11/19/19 S&P reverses, barely.

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current Market Prediction (slow model):

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: Todays S&P 500 small-scale reversal (less than 2 points) may be more sympathetic to the DJIA losing ground on the back of Home Depot losses (-5% plus). The model seems to still be in-sync with the current t uptrend. We are just a couple points off the 2-month closing high.  Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis is giving us the glimpse at the future ahead.

What is the S&P 500 signaling about current events? We have discussed this about a week now and the major index continues to drift upwards. Today’s action continues to show the market is not really concerned. The side topic of an escalated “trade war” with China

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 forecast (SPX): The S&P basically drifted higher over the last couple of days.  Today’s 2 pt downside reversal is pretty tame considering action of the last 2 months.  We keep saying (in various ways) that the bears just don’t seem to be able to pull a meaningful raid off. The impeachment proceedings are not producing enough angst among market participants to be a bearish factor (lack-luster testimony and Republican control of the Senate are contributing to the peace). Technical trend is still up. Nonlinear / Chaotic indicators are still bullish. We are keeping a lookout in case darker clouds arise.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading. Determine the direction of the S&P and trading becomes much less complex.”

Master Sergeant Bilko (the movie version) said, “I like a sporting event in which I know the outcome beforehand, it’s more organized.”

11/14/19 Several minor reversal attempt recently, nothing significant yet.

2-month (approx) focus chart.

Current Market Prediction (slow model):

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: Todays S&P 500 close is the highest of the week so far.  So far, we have kept with the trend while avoiding being tripped out by false signals that trick bulls out of a bullish trend. Model still in-sync. Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis is giving us the glimpse at the future trend.

What? Well, the impeachment is on. With a Republican controlled senate, it seems like a waste of time. I would like to share how I look at this. The Democratic Party is fractured into 2 halves: liberals (Biden) and progressives (Jr. Communist, Bernie Sanders). Progressives consider Warren a liberal, trying to pass herself off as a progressive. The liberals have received some analysis advising them they will lose 2020 no matter who runs from their current 3+1 (Buttigieg) team. For them the impeachment is a disparate “hail Mary” pass, trying to snatch victory from defeat. The progressives are actually trying to take over the Democratic Party. To them this is an attempt to remove Joe Biden through displaying Hunter Biden’s corruption (also a jab at Trump is okay for them). The market is taking a longer-term view of this and is ignoring the hearings largely.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 forecast (SPX): S&P closed at the high of the week, despite limited selling over the past several trading days, since Nov 7th.  The bears don’t seem to have the firepower to drive the market down yet. The clumsy political machinations by the Democratic Party has not provided enough angst (against the backdrop of a Republican-controlled Senate) to bring in sellers. Technical trend is still up. Nonlinear / Chaotic indicators are still bullish. We are watching.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading.”

11/8/19 S&P 500 drifts up, bears can’t dig in their heels yet.

2-month (approx) focus chart.

Current Market Forecast (slow model):

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: S&P 500 closes at the high of the week, sellers attempt a couple reversal attempts but couldn’t get it going. Model still in-sync. Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis is giving us the glimpse at the future trend.

What? Have a great Veterans Day!

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 forecast (SPX): Stocks have broken through mid-October highs and we don’t see a serious technical reversal yet. Technical trend is still up. Nonlinear / Chaotic indicators are still bullish.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading.”

11/5/19 S&P 500 posts gains with a nonlinear nod!

11/5/19 S&P 500 posts gains with a nonlinear nod!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current Market Predictions:

$SPX (S&P 500), Bull-trend signal (10/18/19) with TTP= 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The model is in-synch with the market. Price action for the bull-trend is still upward with the most current close above the TTP. Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis is giving us the edge in time-series prediction.

What? The Democratic party continues to struggle with selecting a presidential candidate. 3 top tier contenders and dark horse Pete Buttigieg (he is advancing from the lower tier).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 forecast (SPX): The bullish trend signal took some minor selling today, but the bears lacked conviction. Technical trend is still up. Nonlinear indicators are still bullish.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading.”

10/31/19 S&P 500 breaks out of the recent trading range!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current Market Predictions:

$SPX (S&P 500), non-linear model indicates that the trading trend is now up for this index. Today (10/18/19) is the signal day. The closing price on Monday (10/21).  TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) = 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The model is in-synch with the market. The most recent close is higher than the close on the recent signal date and the TTP.  Chaotic trend / nonlinear trend analysis is giving us the edge in time-series prediction.

What? The death of the ISIS bigwig (Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri) was a positive for stock trading. ISIS strength is hardly a positive for prosperity in the US.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 forecast (SPX): The trading trend made significant technical progress this week with Friday’s breakout close. Nonlinear indicators are still bullish.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 trading.”

10/25/19 S&P 500 closes above recent high close!

2-month (approx.) focus chart.

Current market Predictions:

$SPX (S&P 500), non-linear model indicates that the trading trend is now up for this index. Today (10/18/19) is the signal day. The closing price on Monday (10/21).  TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) = 3006.72.

Current price for CTM research (signals), $15,000 per quarter for the S&P 500 “fast” nonlinear model. The faster model is more optimized for options trading.

Model notes: The model is looking good. Price closed at a new recent high 5 trading days after signal date. Chaotic trend analysis is giving us the edge in time-series prediction.

What? The impeachment effort is starting to look more like the Crazy Train.  So far, it’s not holding the market back.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TTP (Theoretical Transaction Day) is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • S&P 500 Index forecast (SPX): The trading trend made significant technical progress this week with Friday’s breakout close. Nonlinear indicators are still bullish.

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2019, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in stock index and S&P 500 index trading.”