Tag Archives: Nonlinear trading

Really?!?

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short (signal 3/16)

CTM150319Technical Read: Gold and largecaps (two markets that are not known for moving in unison) both leapt in the aftermath of the Fed removing the word “patience” from the much parsed central bank comments. The act had been widely anticipated, so perhaps I can be forgiven by saying this seems like an over-reaction. Still the markets will do what they have to do. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still negative for gold (and largecaps). I do not expect 110.50 to hold (GLD basis). The model portfolio remains short.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – I alluded to the S&P 500 comments in the gold section. I don’t expect largecaps to trend upward at this point either. Anyway, I have an announcement. Easter is coming soon, as part of the resurrection holiday celebration, the CTM website is going to (for 30days, starting the day after Easter) display S&P 500 charts with independent signals. I will be using the time period to recalibrate my stock signals on perhaps the world’s most analyzed index. Talk about going for the brass ring! Gold signals will continue as normal.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

110.50 Not to Hold

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short (signal 3/16, today is a sell)

CTM150316Technical Read: Gold bears ran out of steam the last 4 trading days, thus giving the appearance of a support level at the 110.50 level (GLD basis). However, the bulls were not able to respond with a bounce and the floor is beginning to feel like a boat taking on too much water. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are not supportive, so the CTM website now expects prices to head lower. The model portfolio is now short.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 leapt in today’s trading, possibly on the bad-news-is-good-news (Fed production numbers were weak) principle is in play, against the backdrop of a Fed tightening. Nonlinear trading readings issued a sell on the 12th (about 15pts lower than today’s close). We have to give bigcaps a little more time to sort out the trend. For now, I suspect the rally in equities is not to be believed. Anyway, it is bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bears Run Out of Steam?

Model Gold Portfolio:  Neutral (3/5 signal)

CTM150312Technical Read: Gold traded firmer before sellers managed to get the close negative (GLD basis, down .03). We are facing the same situation, trend down, but market oversold. Conflicting technicals. We are waiting for a renewed signal from nonlinear trading analysis readings.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied strongly after several potent down days in the last few weeks. Import prices climbed last month but the previous months were weak. There is not enough inflation data to warrant the Fed increase. Interestingly, nonlinear trading readings issued a sale on largecaps. This is neutral for gold, for now.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Not Bad

Model Gold Portfolio: 3/5 neutral

CTM150310Technical Read: There was a bright side for the 3/5 exit short signal: The move to neutral was posted in the evening, after Comex trading had ceased. That meant market traders would have been “forced” to exit the shorts on 3/6, which was an awesome day to close out a short position (experienced traders will attest to how smooth an exit goes when the market is strongly moving in the direction of the trade). So now what? GLD broke the tenuous support at the 114.25 level, a bearish move. On the other hand, the 3/6 move has put the market in (albeit a short-term) oversold position. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are not giving the market a signal either way, except for this: WAIT! This could be the beginning of a market change.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 is on its heels as well. The market is jittery with the Fed waiting (like a vulture on a nearby tree) to hike rates. I am not sure they can do it with Europe and Japan going the other way. Nonlinear trading readings on largecaps are inconclusive. This is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Limited Downside

Model Gold Portfolio: 3/5 neutral, previous signal= Short, 2/26

CTM150305Technical Read: GLD closed down, right on the 115 line today. This is a little short of my 114.5 forecast, but still squarely at the low end of the recent two-week trading range. Nonlinear trading analysis readings have flat-lined. This signals limited downside ahead and thus the model portfolio is now neutral. Remember exting a short is not the same thing as taking a bullish position. It is too early to go long on gold.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 sold off from March 2nd highs, but not terribly so. A tidbit of global news received considerable airplay today: Chinese premier, Li Keqiang advised the county’s GDP target is “around 7 percent.” This has been universally interpreted to mean weaker-than-seven (global deflation headwinds?). Nonlinear readings on largecaps have turned neutral as well. This, in turn is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Reversed Down

Model Gold Portfolio: Now Short, 2/26

CTM150302Technical Read: Gold reversed the three-day drift to modestly high prices today. A reversal from the high inside a congestion zone (currently 114.25-117, GLD basis) tends to point to a retest of the lows. Nonlinear trading analysis readings suggest at least a test of the 114.50 level. Expect more selling. The model portfolio remains bearish.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 continues to creep higher. Today’s close was at the highest level in the past 10 days. Commerce Department reading of a downtick in consumer spending is likely to have roots in the general reduction in energy (gas) prices. This is going to free up purchasing power for other consumer endeavors. Nonlinear readings are still on a ‘buy’ here. If stocks accelerate, it will be a headwind for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Sell is in the Air

Model Gold Portfolio: Sell 2/26, previous signal, neutral (exit long 2/17)

CTM150226Technical Read: Gold popped up at the opening today before selling off the highs by the end of trading. The GLD is now at the high-end of its recent trading range.  From a chart standpoint the trend is still down.  Nonlinear trading analysis readings are now signaling more selling pressure waits. I do not expect 115 (GLD basis) to hold. The model portfolio is now bearish (today’s signal).

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 ticked down 3pts on today’s trading. Weekly jobless claims fell 21,000. In the aftermath, interest rates advanced. The Fed is still being noncommittal as to when the tightening begins. It is a cinch, it won’t be tomorrow. Nonlinear readings are positive for largecaps, so I expect higher equity prices. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

115, No Bottom Likely

CTM150223Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Neutral (exit long 2/17)

Technical Read: Gold has been trading quietly over the past 5 day (115-116, GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis readings are neutral, so the 115 level is not likely to hold.  Gold has basically been in a grinding decline since late-Jan highs. The model portfolio remains neutral. I am looking for a new trade based on my readings, but the numbers are not giving me any trending indications yet.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Largecaps seem comfortable after breaking out of their recent range (2070, S&P 500 basis). Nonlinear readings are constructive for higher prices. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cam in at 54.3 in February, besting economists estimates and the previous month’s readings as well. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Back to the Beginning

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

CTM150210Technical Read: Gold edged lower today but closed in line with the levels of Jan 14, AKA the last closing trade before the Swiss central bank surprise de-link announcement. This corresponds with the 118 level, GLD basis. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are flat-lining but still positive. The most likely result is a rally from the current oversold levels. Still long.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied but the closing price is still contained within the recent range (1990- 2070). This largely neutral for gold (i.e. well behaved price action).
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

120 Challenged

CTM150207Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

Technical Read: Gold dropped precipitously Friday, and dropped through recent support (120 level, GLD basis). Does this automatically mean to sell (go short)? No. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still supportive and near-term price action is oversold. We would have liked to miss Friday’s decline but a bounce is more likely than not. The long signal continues to be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Bigcaps hit sellers Friday, at the top end of the range (2070, S&P 500 basis). This was generally expected. US blue chips are looking for direction, caught between superior US growth expectations (bullish) and global deflation/slowdown fears (bearish). This is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”