Tag Archives: Nonlinear trading

Reversed Down

Model Gold Portfolio: Now Short, 2/26

CTM150302Technical Read: Gold reversed the three-day drift to modestly high prices today. A reversal from the high inside a congestion zone (currently 114.25-117, GLD basis) tends to point to a retest of the lows. Nonlinear trading analysis readings suggest at least a test of the 114.50 level. Expect more selling. The model portfolio remains bearish.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 continues to creep higher. Today’s close was at the highest level in the past 10 days. Commerce Department reading of a downtick in consumer spending is likely to have roots in the general reduction in energy (gas) prices. This is going to free up purchasing power for other consumer endeavors. Nonlinear readings are still on a ‘buy’ here. If stocks accelerate, it will be a headwind for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Sell is in the Air

Model Gold Portfolio: Sell 2/26, previous signal, neutral (exit long 2/17)

CTM150226Technical Read: Gold popped up at the opening today before selling off the highs by the end of trading. The GLD is now at the high-end of its recent trading range.  From a chart standpoint the trend is still down.  Nonlinear trading analysis readings are now signaling more selling pressure waits. I do not expect 115 (GLD basis) to hold. The model portfolio is now bearish (today’s signal).

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 ticked down 3pts on today’s trading. Weekly jobless claims fell 21,000. In the aftermath, interest rates advanced. The Fed is still being noncommittal as to when the tightening begins. It is a cinch, it won’t be tomorrow. Nonlinear readings are positive for largecaps, so I expect higher equity prices. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

115, No Bottom Likely

CTM150223Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Neutral (exit long 2/17)

Technical Read: Gold has been trading quietly over the past 5 day (115-116, GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis readings are neutral, so the 115 level is not likely to hold.  Gold has basically been in a grinding decline since late-Jan highs. The model portfolio remains neutral. I am looking for a new trade based on my readings, but the numbers are not giving me any trending indications yet.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Largecaps seem comfortable after breaking out of their recent range (2070, S&P 500 basis). Nonlinear readings are constructive for higher prices. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cam in at 54.3 in February, besting economists estimates and the previous month’s readings as well. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Back to the Beginning

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

CTM150210Technical Read: Gold edged lower today but closed in line with the levels of Jan 14, AKA the last closing trade before the Swiss central bank surprise de-link announcement. This corresponds with the 118 level, GLD basis. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are flat-lining but still positive. The most likely result is a rally from the current oversold levels. Still long.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied but the closing price is still contained within the recent range (1990- 2070). This largely neutral for gold (i.e. well behaved price action).
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

120 Challenged

CTM150207Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

Technical Read: Gold dropped precipitously Friday, and dropped through recent support (120 level, GLD basis). Does this automatically mean to sell (go short)? No. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still supportive and near-term price action is oversold. We would have liked to miss Friday’s decline but a bounce is more likely than not. The long signal continues to be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Bigcaps hit sellers Friday, at the top end of the range (2070, S&P 500 basis). This was generally expected. US blue chips are looking for direction, caught between superior US growth expectations (bullish) and global deflation/slowdown fears (bearish). This is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

120 Support Holding

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

CTM150203Technical Read: Gold suffered another bout of selling today, however prices picked up support (both today and on the 29th) at the 120 level (GLD basis). The 120 level is just above the surprise Swiss bank announcement gap. Nonlinear trading analysis is supportive. We should pick up risk buying going into the weekend as well. The long signal continues to be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 powered off the recent lows but big caps are still range bound (1990-2070, S&P 500 basis). Greek/ECB negotiation headlines were pretty much negative but there are rumors behind the scenes that the Greek government has made assurances to work to make this summer’s debt payments. This is neutral for gold.
  • Ponderable –The Super Bowl (America’s pinnacle pro football game for the year) proved to be a nail biter to the end. The curious ending featured the Seahawks miraculously getting the ball then diving a couple of feet from the goal line. With a talented running back the obvious play was to pound the ball for the score and the win. But fans were astonished to see the Seahawks try a risky over-the-middle pass that was then intercepted. They turned a victory into a loss. The lesson for traders, is to not get too “fancy”. Look for an edge, use the basic trading rules and remember not to overstay the trade.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

It is not overbought now!

CTM150129Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

Technical Read: It was a tough day for the CTM website today. Gold prices were under considerable pressure all day with the GLD fund down almost 3pts (that is big) at its nadir. We are now at the approximate levels of the first day after the Swiss National Bank’s surprise announcement to remove the franc peg for the euro. On the plus side, we should pick up some support (buying) at current levels. More to follow as we move forward. If we pick up support here the buy signal should still be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 moved lower, then bounced off support (1990), then bounced higher for the close. All the day’s action was within the recent trading range. Still Neutral for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar managed to tick up today. Though generally in an uptrend, action over the last couple of days has been range-bound. Neutral for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 3 – Crude price came under pressure today as well. It managed to close below the Jan 13th lows, triggering headlines. This was negative (deflationary) action for gold..
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bulls Ahoy

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish), Previous signal: Neutral (1/13)

CTM150127Technical Read: Nonlinear trading analysis readings are pointing to higher prices in gold. The model portfolio is now long (bullish). In technical terms, the yellow metal broke out of its trading range on Jan 15, powered by an unusual disruption in the currency markets (the Swiss franc was ground zero). The recent pullback (23rd and 26th) failed to pick any follow-through selling. Another leg higher is likely.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 tumbled down 27 ½ points in the aftermath renewed concerns that Greece will seek concessions (Prime Minister Tsipras’ election is the catalyst for this) to reduce the country’s indebtedness and possibly ease up on the austerity. The two goals don’t seem to mesh unless the bond holders take a haircut. Anyway, I’m not sure today’s move signals a down trend in big caps yet. Neutral for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar index sold off as the bulls got a little ahead of themselves (something all traders have to watch for, no matter how pronounced the trend). There are a lot of poles out there, stuck in the ground, with various heads of traders-gone-by adorning the tops. Any dollar moderation is positive for gold however the technical damage to the dollar was not great.
  • Catalyst 3 – This week marks the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz (an infamous death camp, for the under 30 crowd). The ponderable is: Can something like this happen again? If a government gets too much power, I would say yes.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Eye of the Needle

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (1/13), previous long (12/29)

CTM150123Technical Read: Gold paused its upward move the last three trading sessions. The yellow metal is now balanced on the edge: overbought (bearish factor) but trending up (bullish factor) as well. The trick is getting an entry and not getting whipsawed. I am waiting for nonlinear trading analysis readings to confirm a safe entry.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rebounded off the recent lows (14th and 16th) and the upward forecast is promising. Mildly bearish for gold..
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar index advanced as recent events (Swiss National Bank surprise announcement and the ECB quantitative $1.3t program) are underpending two classic fundamental factors (uncertainty and a weakening euro) that are positive for the greenback. This would normally be a considerable headwind for gold but is a neutral for now as both factors are supportive for the yellow metal as well.
  • Catalyst 3 – The recent death of Saudi Arabian King Abdullah provided a blip headline on the news front this week. The quick succession plan by the Saudi royal family seemed to minimize possible market disruptions, The question is: Can Islamic extremists use their influence to destabilize the kingdom in the future?
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

New Paradigm

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (1/13), previous long (12/29)

CTM150120Technical Read: On Conquerthemummy.com, we have played a pretty traditional strategy of late, signaling a buy (12/29) near the low end of the range and then issuing a sell signal (Jan 13) near the end of the top end of the range.  The Swiss National Bank change of policy effectively removed the gold sellers and allowed GLD to break its bounds and move higher. So now what? Gray haired traders will attest that markets seem to try and lure traders into questionable entries. The yellow metal is very extended here. I am waiting for nonlinear trading analysis readings to confirm a safe entry.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 stagger to put in a mild up day in the wake of Chinese economic moderation. The bluechip index is picking up support at roughly 1990. I have the S&P 500 in a nontrending mode. Neutral for gold, for now.
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar index ticked up to a new recent closing high. The Swiss National Bank surprise announcement to unpeg the franc from the euro has introduced an atmosphere of uncertainty about upcoming ECB action (the theory being the Swiss were tipped off ahead of time. On the other hand the ECB has garnered quite the reputation for inaction. Dollar strength is normally bearish for gold but with the uncertainty driving them both up, there is no headwind from the dollar, at this point.
  • Catalyst 3 – Chinese 4th quarter GDP grew 7.3% (versus year ago numbers), bringing the yearly number to 7.4 %. This is the slowest performance in almost 15 years. Chinese economic moderation is another data point along the way to global deflation. Short-term positive for gold (fear premium) versus long-term negative (lowering tide drops all boats).
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”