Tag Archives: nonlinear trading signals

Not Bad

Model Gold Portfolio: 3/5 neutral

CTM150310Technical Read: There was a bright side for the 3/5 exit short signal: The move to neutral was posted in the evening, after Comex trading had ceased. That meant market traders would have been “forced” to exit the shorts on 3/6, which was an awesome day to close out a short position (experienced traders will attest to how smooth an exit goes when the market is strongly moving in the direction of the trade). So now what? GLD broke the tenuous support at the 114.25 level, a bearish move. On the other hand, the 3/6 move has put the market in (albeit a short-term) oversold position. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are not giving the market a signal either way, except for this: WAIT! This could be the beginning of a market change.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 is on its heels as well. The market is jittery with the Fed waiting (like a vulture on a nearby tree) to hike rates. I am not sure they can do it with Europe and Japan going the other way. Nonlinear trading readings on largecaps are inconclusive. This is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Limited Downside

Model Gold Portfolio: 3/5 neutral, previous signal= Short, 2/26

CTM150305Technical Read: GLD closed down, right on the 115 line today. This is a little short of my 114.5 forecast, but still squarely at the low end of the recent two-week trading range. Nonlinear trading analysis readings have flat-lined. This signals limited downside ahead and thus the model portfolio is now neutral. Remember exting a short is not the same thing as taking a bullish position. It is too early to go long on gold.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 sold off from March 2nd highs, but not terribly so. A tidbit of global news received considerable airplay today: Chinese premier, Li Keqiang advised the county’s GDP target is “around 7 percent.” This has been universally interpreted to mean weaker-than-seven (global deflation headwinds?). Nonlinear readings on largecaps have turned neutral as well. This, in turn is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Reversed Down

Model Gold Portfolio: Now Short, 2/26

CTM150302Technical Read: Gold reversed the three-day drift to modestly high prices today. A reversal from the high inside a congestion zone (currently 114.25-117, GLD basis) tends to point to a retest of the lows. Nonlinear trading analysis readings suggest at least a test of the 114.50 level. Expect more selling. The model portfolio remains bearish.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 continues to creep higher. Today’s close was at the highest level in the past 10 days. Commerce Department reading of a downtick in consumer spending is likely to have roots in the general reduction in energy (gas) prices. This is going to free up purchasing power for other consumer endeavors. Nonlinear readings are still on a ‘buy’ here. If stocks accelerate, it will be a headwind for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Sell is in the Air

Model Gold Portfolio: Sell 2/26, previous signal, neutral (exit long 2/17)

CTM150226Technical Read: Gold popped up at the opening today before selling off the highs by the end of trading. The GLD is now at the high-end of its recent trading range.  From a chart standpoint the trend is still down.  Nonlinear trading analysis readings are now signaling more selling pressure waits. I do not expect 115 (GLD basis) to hold. The model portfolio is now bearish (today’s signal).

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 ticked down 3pts on today’s trading. Weekly jobless claims fell 21,000. In the aftermath, interest rates advanced. The Fed is still being noncommittal as to when the tightening begins. It is a cinch, it won’t be tomorrow. Nonlinear readings are positive for largecaps, so I expect higher equity prices. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

115, No Bottom Likely

CTM150223Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Neutral (exit long 2/17)

Technical Read: Gold has been trading quietly over the past 5 day (115-116, GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis readings are neutral, so the 115 level is not likely to hold.  Gold has basically been in a grinding decline since late-Jan highs. The model portfolio remains neutral. I am looking for a new trade based on my readings, but the numbers are not giving me any trending indications yet.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Largecaps seem comfortable after breaking out of their recent range (2070, S&P 500 basis). Nonlinear readings are constructive for higher prices. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cam in at 54.3 in February, besting economists estimates and the previous month’s readings as well. This is modestly bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Back to the Beginning

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

CTM150210Technical Read: Gold edged lower today but closed in line with the levels of Jan 14, AKA the last closing trade before the Swiss central bank surprise de-link announcement. This corresponds with the 118 level, GLD basis. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are flat-lining but still positive. The most likely result is a rally from the current oversold levels. Still long.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied but the closing price is still contained within the recent range (1990- 2070). This largely neutral for gold (i.e. well behaved price action).
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

120 Challenged

CTM150207Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

Technical Read: Gold dropped precipitously Friday, and dropped through recent support (120 level, GLD basis). Does this automatically mean to sell (go short)? No. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still supportive and near-term price action is oversold. We would have liked to miss Friday’s decline but a bounce is more likely than not. The long signal continues to be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – Bigcaps hit sellers Friday, at the top end of the range (2070, S&P 500 basis). This was generally expected. US blue chips are looking for direction, caught between superior US growth expectations (bullish) and global deflation/slowdown fears (bearish). This is neutral for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

120 Support Holding

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

CTM150203Technical Read: Gold suffered another bout of selling today, however prices picked up support (both today and on the 29th) at the 120 level (GLD basis). The 120 level is just above the surprise Swiss bank announcement gap. Nonlinear trading analysis is supportive. We should pick up risk buying going into the weekend as well. The long signal continues to be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 powered off the recent lows but big caps are still range bound (1990-2070, S&P 500 basis). Greek/ECB negotiation headlines were pretty much negative but there are rumors behind the scenes that the Greek government has made assurances to work to make this summer’s debt payments. This is neutral for gold.
  • Ponderable –The Super Bowl (America’s pinnacle pro football game for the year) proved to be a nail biter to the end. The curious ending featured the Seahawks miraculously getting the ball then diving a couple of feet from the goal line. With a talented running back the obvious play was to pound the ball for the score and the win. But fans were astonished to see the Seahawks try a risky over-the-middle pass that was then intercepted. They turned a victory into a loss. The lesson for traders, is to not get too “fancy”. Look for an edge, use the basic trading rules and remember not to overstay the trade.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

It is not overbought now!

CTM150129Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)

Technical Read: It was a tough day for the CTM website today. Gold prices were under considerable pressure all day with the GLD fund down almost 3pts (that is big) at its nadir. We are now at the approximate levels of the first day after the Swiss National Bank’s surprise announcement to remove the franc peg for the euro. On the plus side, we should pick up some support (buying) at current levels. More to follow as we move forward. If we pick up support here the buy signal should still be viable.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 moved lower, then bounced off support (1990), then bounced higher for the close. All the day’s action was within the recent trading range. Still Neutral for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar managed to tick up today. Though generally in an uptrend, action over the last couple of days has been range-bound. Neutral for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 3 – Crude price came under pressure today as well. It managed to close below the Jan 13th lows, triggering headlines. This was negative (deflationary) action for gold..
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bulls Ahoy

Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish), Previous signal: Neutral (1/13)

CTM150127Technical Read: Nonlinear trading analysis readings are pointing to higher prices in gold. The model portfolio is now long (bullish). In technical terms, the yellow metal broke out of its trading range on Jan 15, powered by an unusual disruption in the currency markets (the Swiss franc was ground zero). The recent pullback (23rd and 26th) failed to pick any follow-through selling. Another leg higher is likely.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 tumbled down 27 ½ points in the aftermath renewed concerns that Greece will seek concessions (Prime Minister Tsipras’ election is the catalyst for this) to reduce the country’s indebtedness and possibly ease up on the austerity. The two goals don’t seem to mesh unless the bond holders take a haircut. Anyway, I’m not sure today’s move signals a down trend in big caps yet. Neutral for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 –The US dollar index sold off as the bulls got a little ahead of themselves (something all traders have to watch for, no matter how pronounced the trend). There are a lot of poles out there, stuck in the ground, with various heads of traders-gone-by adorning the tops. Any dollar moderation is positive for gold however the technical damage to the dollar was not great.
  • Catalyst 3 – This week marks the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz (an infamous death camp, for the under 30 crowd). The ponderable is: Can something like this happen again? If a government gets too much power, I would say yes.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I will be offering a similar process for currencies (the US Dollar, plus one more) after Jan 31.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”