Gold: The recent breakout failed as the media touted a Monday morning turn-for the-better in Euro-Greece debt negotiations. It looked like another game of kick-the-can to me. But clearly my skepticism is in the minority as gold dropped heavily in the aftermath (Monday and Tuesday). Today’s closing level is very close to the previous buy level on the GLD (June 4th). The current theme is still bullish with an oversold feel to it. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps, laboriously, ticked higher on the Greek-feel-good news but the S&P closed about where it did last Thursday (June 18th). Maybe the good-times are still to come. The current read is still that we are range-bound. Recent trading activity has us hovering near the top end of the range. Translation: ‘be careful about buying here.’ The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): Largecap price compression is the opposite of healthy for volatility. The preproduction VIX trading model exited a useful short (it is now flat) but the index still moved lower. There is no indication of an upside reversal yet.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Gold: Breakout! The previous theme of limited-selling played itself out on 6/17 as the bears tried unsuccessfully to push the yellow metal down, but instead the day ended with an upside reversal. 6/18 was an bullish breakout. The new theme should feature move active buying. Upside target: 118. The current signal looks very good. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps jumped today as well. However our system has not generated a buy yet. Our preproduction VIX signal did generate a sell (VIX tends to be inverse to the underlying market) recently so the theme for this market is a trading range with the top being 2135. The S&P 500 model is still flat. (note: the official signal for 6/9 was “exit Short” not “exit Long”, both are flat signals but we were short previous to the 9th).
$VIX (S&P volatility): The preproduction VIX trading model is now negative (VIX sure moves fast). So taken with the S&P flat signal, this indicates we can expect largecaps to be rangebound for now.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Gold: Gold lifted today as the nonlinear trading signal analysis inspired dearth-of-sellers theme met a modestly unsettling market backdrop of a Greece exit and possible Fed positional changes (both issues are heavy on talk, light on action). We are still higher than our entry signal. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps are pretty close to our exit levels. The recent advantage of the signals is that we avoided getting hit with a sizable whipsaw. I don’t have to tell grizzled traders how good that feels. So now what? We look for the next tradable move. But for now, the S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX trading signals are close (but inverse) to the S&P signals. But now both are flat. Missing the rapid 2-day rally was tougher. But you can’t catch every trade.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold broke down in early June, signaling some to expect lower prices (a now-trending-down interpretation) however the gold bears still have a problem. Nonlinear trading analysis has gold pegged as crazy oversold. This theme effectively means all the risk is on the bearish side of the table (or in other words the next “surprise” will be one that pops prices up). I expect sellers to be skittish. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps popped after we issued the signal to clear out the shorts, so we seem to be still in synch with the current trading. The next step? We need to see more trading to help clarify where we are on this asset class The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): We did well with this last pre-production signal as well (and we are now flat). Low end of recent trading is 12.00. We are getting close. But traders need to take care, as this index has piled up a lot of bodies over the years.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold is hovering near our entry signal level. We may see a pickup in buyers going into the weekend. Nonlinear analysis has this pegged as crazy oversold. We still expect a bounce. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: We are issuing an exit short signal on stocks. The CTM downside target (2070) was essentially in intraday trading. The market is largely oversold, so some type of pause or reaction rally could be the next action. This is the first complete signal with v2.0. Round one goes to CTM. The S&P 500 model is now flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX model is now flat also. This index moves so rapidly, further modification may be required to make it more useful, but I am encouraged with the first round (a fairly positive trade).
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold fell through the 113.50 (GLD basis) support level but not decisively. However, nonlinear trading analysis is interpreting the price action as the market is now significantly oversold. We are issuing a bullish signal based on today’s trading. The model Gold portfolio is now bullish
S&P 500: The June 1st sell is doing well. The S&P 500 dropped through its recent trading range. Unlike gold, nonlinear trading analysis is not indicating it is oversold. Price target is approximately 2070 (low of the month of May). The S&P 500 model remains bearish.
$VIX (S&P volatility): VIX model designing work continues. Preproduction model issued a buy on May 27th and the opinion persists. Expectations of higher volatility numbers are a warning of lower stock prices to come.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold exploded in early trading but spent the rest of the day slowly selling back, then posting a mild loss (.GLD basis, -.10). Nonlinear trading signals are trendless. The 113 support line may soon find itself tested again. I am not sure it will hold this time around. The model Gold portfolio is now flat.
S&P 500: Today’s calculations are even less positive for large-caps. Non liniear trading signals are bearish. This V2.0 sell has been long awaited. The S&P 500 model is now bearish. Let the out of sample data testing begin!
$VIX (S&P volatility): While posting Vix signals is still weeks off, I am running the models and they are generally positive on volatility. Another indication that stock are in danger here.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 5/19, S&P 500 awaiting signal, VIX designing model.
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold tested and bounced off the 113 (GLD basis) support level on Thursday (which is bullish) but Friday’s follow through was anemic. Using the age old up-trend definition (higher highs and higher lows), we are still in the zone. This week should give us more buying off the established trading support level. The model Gold portfolio is still long.
S&P 500: The next trading day is in June. I am still waiting for a signal. Largecaps are rangebound.
$VIX (S&P volatility): I want to get the S&P signal going (public out of sample testing) and then see how VIX reacts. The train is stalled for now waiting for a S&P signal. Projection is to start posting this in late-June.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 5/19, S&P 500 awaiting signal, VIX designing model.
Technical Read:
Gold: The tag line refers to a quote in the movie “Braveheart” (when Wallace disrespects an opposing British commander during a parlay). The basic setup a week ago was buying weakness in a perceived uptrend. This was accomplished with a signal change on 5/19. Today’s drop was a little more than expected. However, the yellow metal has reached local support (113 GLD basis) and is now oversold on a near-term basis. Expectations are we will now pick up some buying. The model Gold portfolio is still long.
S&P 500: The S&P dropped quite a bit today as well. I am still looking for an entry with the model. I am still waiting.
$VIX (S&P volatility): I am still working on this model for future posting. Volatility jumped as the S&P fell, this is normal for the index. Project is to start posting this in late-June.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 5/19, S&P 500 awaiting signal, VIX designing model.
Technical Read:
Gold: Today’s comments are similar to May 19th’s comments. Gold punched to new monthly closing highs earlier in the week (5/15 GLD basis), then fell back. We moved in with the buy signal on 5/19 as nonlinear trading analysis signals flipped to positive. Bulls have the technical edge on their side with the emergence of solid support at the 113 level. Selling today was not particularly destructive to the uptrend. The model Gold portfolio remains long.
S&P 500: The S&P models have been refitted with v2.0 but there was no recent entry, so we are simply waiting for a signal before posting a chart. I expect action next week.
$VIX (S&P volatility): I am working on this model for future posting. Volatility trading is crazy, crazy stuff. But it is worth the effort as VIX options (or options on VIX related vehicles) are studied by professionals (hedging) and amateurs (big swing anticipation) alike. I hope to set the 30-day trial up for late June.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: The recent breakout failed as the media touted a Monday morning turn-for the-better in Euro-Greece debt negotiations. It looked like another game of kick-the-can to me. But clearly my skepticism is in the minority as gold dropped heavily in the aftermath (Monday and Tuesday). Today’s closing level is very close to the previous buy level on the GLD (June 4th). The current theme is still bullish with an oversold feel to it. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps, laboriously, ticked higher on the Greek-feel-good news but the S&P closed about where it did last Thursday (June 18th). Maybe the good-times are still to come. The current read is still that we are range-bound. Recent trading activity has us hovering near the top end of the range. Translation: ‘be careful about buying here.’ The S&P 500 model is still flat.
