Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 awaiting revisions
Technical Read:
Gold: The trading trend has weakened in the past trading days. Nonlinear trading analysis is not negative yet. Currently the model portfolio is still long. In the process of working on models, occasionally new work leads to revisions. Starting today, several modest changes in the system are now in effect. I discuss this further in the S&P 500 portion of the comments.
S&P 500: The 30-day trial is over. The signals over the out-of-sample test period were instructive. Several revisions have come out of it. 1) The inference engine has been revised with the object to make the model slightly more active. 2) Volatility calculations have been changed. 3) One of the major studies (tools) has been given a new (modest) degree of freedom. While the changes are in effect today (going live) for gold, I need more time to apply them to the S&P. Therefore the current S&P 500 signals will cease for approximately 2 weeks. I will restart the signals then.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Long 4/27
Technical Read:
Gold: The yellow metal has had a rollercoaster ride over the past few days. The GLD briefly powered south of 114.5 (and 113.50 too!) before leaping on Monday. A game of inside baseball (Citigroup and Venezuelan central bank) was reported as a trigger event. The point is, sellers seem to have limitations on the downside, at least in terms of time. Nonlinear trading analysis is positive. Next stop 117.5? The model gold portfolio is long.
S&P 500: The largecap model reversed again, as nonlinear trading analysis skipped a stay in neutral ground, and moved straight to bullish. Though we have seen some down days over the past month, the general trend is up. As of today, the models see higher prices ahead in the S&P. The largecap model is now long. side.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Short 4/21
Technical Read:
Gold: Sellers pushed gold down on 4/22 but today (23rd) the market had a sizable rebound (back above 114.50, GLD basis). This week’s economic news featured an estimate of Chinese economic activity in April. China is a bulwark of growth against global deflationary pressures. So, economist beware. Nonlinear trading analysis is still supportive of higher prices in the yellow metal, but with less conviction. The model gold portfolio is long.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 has pushed high the last couple of days but closed only a meager 3pts above resistance at the 2110 level. The Nasdaq Composite posted a closing high (15 years) today. So we will have to see if prices retreat from here. Nonlinear trading analysis has us on the short side.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = now Short 4/21
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold tried to break below support (114.50, GLD basis) but closed north of support at the close. Todays’ trading featured gold bears on their heels as reports of Iranian weapons transports possibly squaring off with the US Navy. Nonlinear trading analysis indicates the next move should be skyward. The model gold portfolio is long.
S&P 500: Largecaps rallied back up to the 2110 level but hit sellers. Nonlinear trading analysis has turned decidedly negative, issuing a ‘sell’, and avoiding the usual neutral position between signals. Somehow, it feels right to have to have the stock signal opposite the gold signal. Increased conflagration chances are not the friends of equities. The model largecap portfolio is now short.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Now Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Long 4/7
Technical Read:
Gold: 114.50 has held better than expected over the past several days (and 4/9 too). “Grexit” concerns may be at play here. Nonlinear trading analysis is now signaling higher prices. With local support at 114.50 and 113 (GLD basis), the stage is set for bullish action ahead. Maybe the river that runs still, runs deep. The model gold portfolio is signaled to long today.
S&P 500: Largecaps cracked ahead of possible weekend stress. We are still mildly higher than the signal level. We need a few more trading days to give us clearer indications. Ahead. Interest rates and the US dollar are not spiraling. The model largecap portfolio is long.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 3/31, S&P 500 = Now long 4/7
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold gave back some of the previous day’s gains but the trading trend is still intact. The price is still north of the previous peak on March 26th (116 GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis indicates that the previous support area of 113.5 (GLD basis) should hold. We may pick up some buying interest going into the weekend too. Model portfolio is long.
S&P 500: Today premiers the first entry signal during the post-Easter 30-day trial on the S&P 500. Previously, I mentioned nonlinear trading analysis indicated that the 2045 support level would hold. Today the models are more venturesome and a “buy” (I.E. LL) signal was generated. The model largecap portfolio is “long.”.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 3/31, S&P 500 =Neutral 4/1
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold had a nice pop today. GLD closed off the highs but still north of the most recent established peak (116 on March 26). The trend is up and nonlinear trading analysis is positive, so I expect more upside action. The 113.50 support level is good footing for the rise. Model portfolio is long.
S&P 500: Today starts the post-Easter 30-day trial on the S&P 500. I have applied the latest nonlinear trading analysis models. I look forward to the upcoming days. The read is neutral with the last signal being an exit short on 4/1. Largecaps are now signaling they are non-trending, so I do not expect the nearby 2045 (S&P basis) to be pierced. However, it seems too early to go long. Model portfolio is neutral.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Gold: Gold jumped today in the wake of the 3/31 “buy” signal. Nonlinear trading analysis is positive, so today’s price action confirms the 113.50 bottom. So the signal starts on good footing.
S&P 500: I am starting the 30-day trial run on this category post Easter. Today nonlinear trading analysis is signaling “neutral,” reversing the recent short signals. This will probably be the signal we start the trial with as another signal this week is unlikely. Tune in to watch how nonlinear trading analysis does on one of the world’s most followed indexes. We are going for the brass ring in April!
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now long 3/31, (previous signal sell 3/16)
Technical Read: Gold tried to lift today after two days of weakness; the metal fell back towards the end of the day, modestly. GLD inched down 9 cents at the close. Nevertheless, nonlinear trading analysis readings have now turned bullish (skipping the usual “exS” neutral reading). Recent Mideast escalations (i.e. airstrikes from Saudi Arabia) are likely to keep sellers off balance. The model portfolio is now long.
Backdrop:
The S&P 500 reconfirming sell on 3/23 (the previous sell being 3/12) is still playing out. Remember, immediately after Easter Sunday, we will start including S&P signals on CTM for 30 days. Tune in to see what we have to say!
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Technical Read: Gold has advanced more than I would like to see from the 3/16 short signal. The Fed decision to remove of “patience” from its statement was followed by a verbal repudiation of the change (the promise not to become “impatient”). It would not seem like a big change, but gold reversed its downward trend in the aftermath and meaningful selling has yet to reappear. Technically, the market overbought (up four straight days), however, nonlinear trading analysis readings are becoming more ambivalent. We will have to continue the vigil a little longer to see if the gold market falls back or remains healthy enough to move higher.
Backdrop:
Catalyst 1 – We had a reconfirming ‘sell’ on the S&P 500 on 3/23 (the previous sell being 3/12). Largecaps had a bad day (30pts down, S&P 500 basis). So we seem to be more in synch on this market lately. Remember, immediately after Easter Sunday, we will start including S&P signals on CTM for 30 days. Tune in to see what we have to say!
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
“Use nonlinear research to help determine the future direction of the S&P and trading can become much less complex.” GH Garrett
Gold: The trading trend has weakened in the past trading days. Nonlinear trading analysis is not negative yet. Currently the model portfolio is still long. In the process of working on models, occasionally new work leads to revisions. Starting today, several modest changes in the system are now in effect. I discuss this further in the S&P 500 portion of the comments.
S&P 500: The 30-day trial is over. The signals over the out-of-sample test period were instructive. Several revisions have come out of it. 1) The inference engine has been revised with the object to make the model slightly more active. 2) Volatility calculations have been changed. 3) One of the major studies (tools) has been given a new (modest) degree of freedom. While the changes are in effect today (going live) for gold, I need more time to apply them to the S&P. Therefore the current S&P 500 signals will cease for approximately 2 weeks. I will restart the signals then.
