Tag Archives: Nonlinear signals

What!?! (Dollar crash) ($USD)

May Rotations: Core= wheat, Featured= US dollar

Signals: wheat Long 5/19 (TSP=467.25), US dollar buy 5/11 (TSP= 94.13)

Model Notes: The dollar drop on Friday caught seemingly everyone by surprise (us too) but CTM had one advantage, we entered much lower (TSP 94.13) so the drop basically put us very near our entry levels.  Our models are still positive on the green back, so we expect a bounce next week. The wheat model is doing well and the recent buy signal was enhanced by the Friday currency dislocation. The grain market has a rangebound feel to it, but the models are not signaling a sell yet.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160603wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) The buy signal is actually getting better on the back of the currency dislocation on Friday. The 455 support level held and prices are going higher. The models are not signaling a halt yet, but I have some indications of a possible trend change in the new week. Wheat trackers, stay with us! The CTM models are still bullish.
  • CTM160603uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The greenback took a nose dive on Friday but due to a pretty good entry (TSP 467.25) the position is near breakeven. For now the models are indication limited downside and we are staying positive. The currency market is trying to work through the change of perception that the US economy is not as strong as earlier thought (employment is weaker).

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. Contact me for more info. Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.” 

US Dollar still climbing! ($USD)

May Rotations: Core= wheat, Featured= US dollar

Signals: wheat Long 5/19 (TSP=467.25), US dollar buy 5/11 (TSP= 94.13)

Model Notes: The buy on wheat came in at 467.25 (TSP), near todays’ close and above the 455 support area. A pretty good start. The US dollar is still moving up, leaving our buy signal behind (in a profitable way!). The models seem in sync with their respective markets.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160524wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) The buy signal is in pretty good shape from a technical read standpoint. The market is holding above near-term support (455) and the downside momentum is waning. We are looking for reversal to the upside.
  • CTM160524uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The greenback is still drifting up. It appears the 95 resistance level has been pierced. The buzz about rate hike in June is not going to embolden dollar bears. The dollar model is positive.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Wheat reverses to a buy! (^WN16)

May Rotations: Core= wheat, Featured= US dollar

Signals: wheat Long 5/19 (TSP=Waiting), US dollar buy 5/11 (TSP= 94.13)

Model Notes: Wheat reverses to a buy! We can catch the TSP (tomorrow’s close) later but it looks like a positive trade for now. The recent US dollar buy looks good to as the greenback drifts higher. Both models look to be in sync with their respective markets.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160519wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) The model expects the 455 support level to hold. This feels about right as the market fell off the end of April levels. The model wheat portfolio is now long and we are waiting for the TSP (entry price).
  • CTM160519uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The dollar model is now long and the greenback is challenging near-term resistance (approx. 95.25). The model expect dollar to push north of it.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I recently posted the S&P 500 postmortem. I think you will be pleased.

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

The dollar gets a buy! ($usd)

May Rotations: Core: wheat, Featured: US dollar

Signals: wheat short 4/29 (TSP=487.50), US dollar buy 5/11 (TSP= waiting)

Model Notes: The US dollar model issues a buy! The downside expectation here is 93, with the trend now pointed up. This is the first signal for the period (May). On the wheat side the model sell is still in the money. Both signals appear good and the models appear in sync with their markets.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160511wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) The Apr 29 sell short is still working and it is not clear that the grain is going to hold at the $455 support level. So far the market is pausing the downward move but there chart does not seem to be signaling a reversal. Model is still short.
  • CTM160511uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The dollar models are now registering a buy. We won’t know the TSP until tomorrow’s close. We have near-term chart support at about 93. This is not far from today’s close (limited downside expectations). The model portfolio is now bullish.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I recently posted the S&P 500 postmortem. I think you will be pleased.

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Wheat short signals does well (^wn16)

Model Notes: The wheat model sell (Apr 29, TSP=487.50) is working fairly well with prices dropping some 20 cents in the aftermath. So the model does seem in sync. The US dollar? The model is holding neutral. The initial setup offered little in the way of possibilities. Linear techniques indicated a downtrend but the market was severely oversold. Any one that shorted on Apr 29 (the period start date) would be looking at a loss as of Friday. I would say this model is also in sync.

May Rotations: Core: wheat, Featured: US dollar

Model Portfolio Signals: wheat short 4/29 (TSP=487.50), US dollar is flat

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations. If your independent research provider doesn’t use the TSP methodology, maybe you need to add another independent research source.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160506wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) Wheat dropped after the brief Apr 25-29 rally and closed lower than the recent Apr 25 low. We do have chart support at $450. For now the models stay short.
  • CTM160506uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The dollar weakness was followed by a sizable rebound. Chart resistance is right around the 94 level, or put another way, about where we are now. The model is holding the neutral position but I have some indications that we should get a signal this week.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I recently posted the S&P 500 postmortem. I think you will be pleased.

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

New beginnings, wheat starts with a short (^wn16)

 

Model Notes: May starts with 2 new markets, wheat the core and the dollar is the featured. Wheat starts out with a short reading. The dollar is conflicted and starts flat. The trend is probably down but after 5 hefty down days, the trend is unplayable. So this is a wait. Please take a moment to check out the “US Equities” tab, I posted the postmortem for that market this weekend. Great stuff.

May Rotations: Core: wheat, Featured: US dollar

Model Portfolio Signals: wheat short 4/29 (TSP=Monday’s close), US dollar is flat

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations. If your independent research provider doesn’t use the TSP methodology, maybe their models are not as prescient as those used by CTM .

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160429wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) Wheat tried the moonshot above $5.00 a couple of weeks back but failed to hold. The rally last week looks more like a chance to fade. The model wheat portfolio is now short.
  • CTM160429uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): this is more complex. The break below the recent range indicates a downtrend but the 5 straight down days is not a good place to drop a short. We have to walk this trail a little further to get a good signal. The model dollar portfolio is flat.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I recently posted the S&P 500 postmortem. I think you will be pleased.

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stocks dipping their toe below selling TSP ($spx)

Model Notes: The S&P closed below the TSP for the recent sell. So the 3/08 buy to the 4/15 sell was a great trade and now the current short is in-the-money. The stock model is definitely in sync with the underlying market. Gold? Well the first trade was not, but since 4/01 (the go flat signal) the models have registered no trading trend and the yellow metal does seem range bound. The next entry signal (and the following exit) will tell.

April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500. Look for wheat (core) and USD (featured ) for May.

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= 2094.34)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160421gGold Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. core market) The models are not detecting any real directional trend. The technicals have resistance at 120 or so (GLD basis). Some may make the case that if stocks soften, gold buyers will come in. But rates have been ticking up recently and that can’t be good for gold bulls. Models are signaling flat.
  • CTM160421sS&P 500 Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. feature): What can you say? The models are tracking well. The S&P 500 is set to reverse, possibly aided by less positive takes on some of the earnings news. The models are short. Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

 

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stock Model gives the go short signal, good trade though. ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model gave the short signal. This has been a good trade (3/08 signal). This is a classic standoff between linear and nonlinear in stocks. If you look at the chart all seems well, but nonlinear analysis is usually not apparent in the early stages. We will see how this plays out. Gold retreated from recent resistance levels. I wonder what the models wil  say we we hit support?

March and April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (the next rotations are weat and the US dollar for May.

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= waiting for Monday’s close).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations as it gives a future price to trade.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160415gGold Trading Signals (core market) The yellow metal fell back when faced with short-term resistance and a firmer stock market. Support is around 115 (GLD basis). Maybe we can pick up a buy later. For now the yellow metal is flat.
  • CTM160415sS&P 500 Trading Signals (featured): The S&P 500 model is signaling a reversal. The 3/08 signal was a pretty good buy. But we know overstaying a trade is not healthy. We will have to see what Monday’s close is for the TSP. I was hoping for 2100 on the big caps. Well, we got close.

Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. Portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Enhance your firm’s market outlook with independent research. Institutional indifference kills!

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stocks preparing to lift? ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model seems to be still in sync with the underlying market. We are well north of the entry TSP. Today’s strength may be signaling the pause is over and higher prices lay ahead. The systems struggled on the gold front. Initially, the models thought the yellow metal was going to trend up, but now have it as non-trending. If you think about it, GLD prices are about where they were a month ago. I think the gold model is now in sync.

March Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (I am now keeping the March markets for April).

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 buy on 3/08 (TSP= 1989.26)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160412gGold Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. core market) Last week’s monster reversal day (April 7) featured limited follow-through buying this week. GLD seems to be finding resistance around 120. I wonder what would happen if interest rates started to tick up? Anyway, the models are advising neutral so flat continues to be the rule of the day.
  • CTM160412sS&P 500 Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. feature): The S&P 500 is stair-stepping its way forward. Today’s strength may foreshadow some upward motion. Earnings concerns are not helpful here. The trend is still up and the models are looking higher. Prices. Are we ready to march to 2100, finally?

Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

 

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stocks stall ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model seems to be still in sync with the underlying market. We are well north of the entry TSP, and while we had a volatile week, we have not seen anything like a classic reversal. We had less luck on the last gold call. Our entry was followed by selling. Today’s moon-shot like rally (after our exit) was the cherry on the stink pot. Oh well, nobody said it would be easy.

March Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (I am now keeping the March markets for April).

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 buy on 3/08 (TSP= 1989.26)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160407gGold (Mar. and Apr. core market) This market had a moon-shot today, closing not terribly far from our original entry. Sheesh! Recent trading is not revealing much of a trend and the models agree. Flat is the rule of the day.
  • CTM160407sS&P 500 (Mar. and Apr. feature): The S&P 500 has received some selling this week, but it looks like more of a pause and less like a reversal. Last post I said 2100 or bust. I hope it is 2100.  The stock model stays bullish.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a ranking product for institutional clients engaged in asset allocation. I will be using the trading signal technology with a longer time frame to aid in portfolio construction for money managers. I have introductory rates (as low as $5,000 a quarter). Click the ‘ranking’ tab to see more. I have a limited number of slots to fill. I can fill the need for independent research.
  • Remember: Non-linear trading analysis is non-apparent and therefore like “insider knowledge” for standard technical analysis. Be the first to get a “head-up” for coming moves.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.” Get your independent research here!