Model Notes: The stock model gave the short signal. This has been a good trade (3/08 signal). This is a classic standoff between linear and nonlinear in stocks. If you look at the chart all seems well, but nonlinear analysis is usually not apparent in the early stages. We will see how this plays out. Gold retreated from recent resistance levels. I wonder what the models wil say we we hit support?
March and April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (the next rotations are weat and the US dollar for May.
Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= waiting for Monday’s close).
Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations as it gives a future price to trade.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Gold Trading Signals (core market) The yellow metal fell back when faced with short-term resistance and a firmer stock market. Support is around 115 (GLD basis). Maybe we can pick up a buy later. For now the yellow metal is flat.
- S&P 500 Trading Signals (featured): The S&P 500 model is signaling a reversal. The 3/08 signal was a pretty good buy. But we know overstaying a trade is not healthy. We will have to see what Monday’s close is for the TSP. I was hoping for 2100 on the big caps. Well, we got close.
Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.
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GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”