New beginnings, wheat starts with a short (^wn16)


Model Notes: May starts with 2 new markets, wheat the core and the dollar is the featured. Wheat starts out with a short reading. The dollar is conflicted and starts flat. The trend is probably down but after 5 hefty down days, the trend is unplayable. So this is a wait. Please take a moment to check out the “US Equities” tab, I posted the postmortem for that market this weekend. Great stuff.

May Rotations: Core: wheat, Featured: US dollar

Model Portfolio Signals: wheat short 4/29 (TSP=Monday’s close), US dollar is flat

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations. If your independent research provider doesn’t use the TSP methodology, maybe their models are not as prescient as those used by CTM .

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160429wWheat Trading Signals (May core market) Wheat tried the moonshot above $5.00 a couple of weeks back but failed to hold. The rally last week looks more like a chance to fade. The model wheat portfolio is now short.
  • CTM160429uUS Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): this is more complex. The break below the recent range indicates a downtrend but the 5 straight down days is not a good place to drop a short. We have to walk this trail a little further to get a good signal. The model dollar portfolio is flat.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I recently posted the S&P 500 postmortem. I think you will be pleased.

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”