Model Notes: The wheat model sell (Apr 29, TSP=487.50) is working fairly well with prices dropping some 20 cents in the aftermath. So the model does seem in sync. The US dollar? The model is holding neutral. The initial setup offered little in the way of possibilities. Linear techniques indicated a downtrend but the market was severely oversold. Any one that shorted on Apr 29 (the period start date) would be looking at a loss as of Friday. I would say this model is also in sync.
May Rotations: Core: wheat, Featured: US dollar
Model Portfolio Signals: wheat short 4/29 (TSP=487.50), US dollar is flat
Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations. If your independent research provider doesn’t use the TSP methodology, maybe you need to add another independent research source.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Wheat Trading Signals (May core market) Wheat dropped after the brief Apr 25-29 rally and closed lower than the recent Apr 25 low. We do have chart support at $450. For now the models stay short.
- US Dollar Trading Signals (May feature): The dollar weakness was followed by a sizable rebound. Chart resistance is right around the 94 level, or put another way, about where we are now. The model is holding the neutral position but I have some indications that we should get a signal this week.
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GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”