Tag Archives: nonlinear trading signals

2110 Resistance ($SPX)

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = now Short 4/21

Technical Read:

  • CTM150421Gold: Gold tried to break below support (114.50, GLD basis) but closed north of support at the close. Todays’ trading featured gold bears on their heels as reports of Iranian weapons transports possibly squaring off with the US Navy. Nonlinear trading analysis indicates the next move should be skyward. The model gold portfolio is long.
  • CTM150421sS&P 500: Largecaps rallied back up to the 2110 level but hit sellers. Nonlinear trading analysis has turned decidedly negative, issuing a ‘sell’, and avoiding the usual neutral position between signals. Somehow, it feels right to have to have the stock signal opposite the gold signal. Increased conflagration chances are not the friends of equities. The model largecap portfolio is now short.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

114.50 Did Hold (GLD)

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Now Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Long 4/7

Technical Read:

  • CTM150417Gold: 114.50 has held better than expected over the past several days (and 4/9 too). “Grexit” concerns may be at play here. Nonlinear trading analysis is now signaling higher prices. With local support at 114.50 and 113 (GLD basis), the stage is set for bullish action ahead. Maybe the river that runs still, runs deep. The model gold portfolio is signaled to long today.
  • CTM150417sS&P 500: Largecaps cracked ahead of possible weekend stress. We are still mildly higher than the signal level. We need a few more trading days to give us clearer indications. Ahead. Interest rates and the US dollar are not spiraling. The model largecap portfolio is long.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold Uptrend Still Intact

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 3/31, S&P 500 = Now long 4/7

Technical Read:

  • CTM150407Gold: Gold gave back some of the previous day’s gains but the trading trend is still intact. The price is still north of the previous peak on March 26th (116 GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis indicates that the previous support area of 113.5 (GLD basis) should hold. We may pick up some buying interest going into the weekend too. Model portfolio is long.
  • CTM150407sS&P 500: Today premiers the first entry signal during the post-Easter 30-day trial on the S&P 500. Previously, I mentioned nonlinear trading analysis indicated that the 2045 support level would hold. Today the models are more venturesome and a “buy” (I.E. LL) signal was generated. The model largecap portfolio is “long.”.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Nice Gold Pop Today

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 3/31, S&P 500 =Neutral 4/1

Technical Read:

  • CTM150406Gold: Gold had a nice pop today. GLD closed off the highs but still north of the most recent established peak (116 on March 26). The trend is up and nonlinear trading analysis is positive, so I expect more upside action. The 113.50 support level is good footing for the rise. Model portfolio is long.
  • CTM150406sS&P 500: Today starts the post-Easter 30-day trial on the S&P 500. I have applied the latest nonlinear trading analysis models. I look forward to the upcoming days. The read is neutral with the last signal being an exit short on 4/1. Largecaps are now signaling they are non-trending, so I do not expect the nearby 2045 (S&P basis) to be pierced. However, it seems too early to go long. Model portfolio is neutral.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

113.50 Established

Model Gold Portfolio: Now long 3/31

Technical Read:

  • CTM150401Gold: Gold jumped today in the wake of the 3/31 “buy” signal. Nonlinear trading analysis is positive, so today’s price action confirms the 113.50 bottom. So the signal starts on good footing.

 

  • S&P 500: I am starting the 30-day trial run on this category post Easter. Today nonlinear trading analysis is signaling “neutral,” reversing the recent short signals. This will probably be the signal we start the trial with as another signal this week is unlikely. Tune in to watch how nonlinear trading analysis does on one of the world’s most followed indexes. We are going for the brass ring in April!

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bulls Didn’t Hold …But…

Model Gold Portfolio: Now long 3/31, (previous signal sell 3/16)

CTM150331Technical Read: Gold tried to lift today after two days of weakness; the metal fell back towards the end of the day, modestly. GLD inched down 9 cents at the close. Nevertheless, nonlinear trading analysis readings have now turned bullish (skipping the usual “exS” neutral reading). Recent Mideast escalations (i.e. airstrikes from Saudi Arabia) are likely to keep sellers off balance. The model portfolio is now long.

Backdrop:

  • The S&P 500 reconfirming sell on 3/23 (the previous sell being 3/12) is still playing out. Remember, immediately after Easter Sunday, we will start including S&P signals on CTM for 30 days. Tune in to see what we have to say!
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Sick or Healthy?

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short (signal 3/16)

CTM150325Technical Read: Gold has advanced more than I would like to see from the 3/16 short signal. The Fed decision to remove of “patience” from its statement was followed by a verbal repudiation of the change (the promise not to become “impatient”). It would not seem like a big change, but gold reversed its downward trend in the aftermath and meaningful selling has yet to reappear. Technically, the market overbought (up four straight days), however, nonlinear trading analysis readings are becoming more ambivalent. We will have to continue the vigil a little longer to see if the gold market falls back or remains healthy enough to move higher.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – We had a reconfirming ‘sell’ on the S&P 500 on 3/23 (the previous sell being 3/12). Largecaps had a bad day (30pts down, S&P 500 basis). So we seem to be more in synch on this market lately. Remember, immediately after Easter Sunday, we will start including S&P signals on CTM for 30 days. Tune in to see what we have to say!
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Really?!?

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short (signal 3/16)

CTM150319Technical Read: Gold and largecaps (two markets that are not known for moving in unison) both leapt in the aftermath of the Fed removing the word “patience” from the much parsed central bank comments. The act had been widely anticipated, so perhaps I can be forgiven by saying this seems like an over-reaction. Still the markets will do what they have to do. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still negative for gold (and largecaps). I do not expect 110.50 to hold (GLD basis). The model portfolio remains short.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – I alluded to the S&P 500 comments in the gold section. I don’t expect largecaps to trend upward at this point either. Anyway, I have an announcement. Easter is coming soon, as part of the resurrection holiday celebration, the CTM website is going to (for 30days, starting the day after Easter) display S&P 500 charts with independent signals. I will be using the time period to recalibrate my stock signals on perhaps the world’s most analyzed index. Talk about going for the brass ring! Gold signals will continue as normal.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

110.50 Not to Hold

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short (signal 3/16, today is a sell)

CTM150316Technical Read: Gold bears ran out of steam the last 4 trading days, thus giving the appearance of a support level at the 110.50 level (GLD basis). However, the bulls were not able to respond with a bounce and the floor is beginning to feel like a boat taking on too much water. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are not supportive, so the CTM website now expects prices to head lower. The model portfolio is now short.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 leapt in today’s trading, possibly on the bad-news-is-good-news (Fed production numbers were weak) principle is in play, against the backdrop of a Fed tightening. Nonlinear trading readings issued a sell on the 12th (about 15pts lower than today’s close). We have to give bigcaps a little more time to sort out the trend. For now, I suspect the rally in equities is not to be believed. Anyway, it is bearish for gold.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bears Run Out of Steam?

Model Gold Portfolio:  Neutral (3/5 signal)

CTM150312Technical Read: Gold traded firmer before sellers managed to get the close negative (GLD basis, down .03). We are facing the same situation, trend down, but market oversold. Conflicting technicals. We are waiting for a renewed signal from nonlinear trading analysis readings.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied strongly after several potent down days in the last few weeks. Import prices climbed last month but the previous months were weak. There is not enough inflation data to warrant the Fed increase. Interestingly, nonlinear trading readings issued a sale on largecaps. This is neutral for gold, for now.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”