Model Portfolios: Gold = Bullish 6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= waiting for new entry.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
Gold: Gold dropped below near-term support at approximately the 112 -112.50 (GLD basis) level. Nonlinear trading signals had anticipated the support to hold here. continues to press lower, possibly hunting for stops below the June 5th Now what? GLD did pick up some buy intraday and managed to close near the high of the trading range. Additionally the yellow metal is now fairly oversold. Making a move now is probably not a good idea. The model Gold portfolio is still long.
S&P 500: The line (loosely) goes ‘much sound and fury, signifying nothing.’ The S&P dive on the 29th and the muscular turn around today puts the blue-chip index at approximately the same level as our last go-to-flat signal on June 9th. VIX readings suggest the next major move will be up (or flat) but I cannot get nonlinear signal confirmation of that for the stock index itself. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The preproduction VIX signaled a short (bullish for stocks) as a result of June 29th The recent volatility in equities is not sending the mathematical index to new highs. I am waiting for a new (real-time) signal to start posting a chart on this.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Bullish 6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= waiting for entry.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
Gold: Gold continues to press lower, possibly hunting for stops below the June 5th low. The GLD fund closed well off its intraday nadir (a possible sign of an upcoming reversal). Nonlinear trading analysis does not suggest the fund will be able to punch significantly below the 112 support level. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish.
S&P 500: The 43 point loss in the aftermath of Greek-referendum announcement, seems to have marked the low level in recent trading. There is a hint of bullishness in the air but I can’t confirm it yet. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The preproduction VIX signaled a short (bullish for stocks) recently. I will be posting VIX trading signals on the next entry (I want to start with a ‘live’ signal for the beta test. I have to cycle through an exit to get to the next entry.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.
Gold: The surprise call for a Greek referendum to (in a de facto way) settle the matter of the Greek-Euro question absolutely staggered the markets on Monday. Gold reacted positively but not enough. We expect to see further advances. Our last signal was bullish and the current price levels are not overbought. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish.
S&P 500: Whereas gold did not react enough, large-caps probably reacted too much. The 43 pt loss in the S&P 500 drubbing has put this index in oversold territory. US equities may come to be a type of safe-haven depending on European volatility. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX trading model bounced quite a bit in recent days. Currently, this index is way overbought. Again the read is generally opposite the S&P 500 itself.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.
Gold: Greek-Euro negotiation euphoria set sail on the back of the nitty gritty details of the deal, but gold continues to tick lower. Nonlinear trading analysis still has this oversold. The selling over last two trading days features decreasing downside momentum (sometimes a precursor to a reversal). Longer-term analysis is also constructive. We are in a buying zone. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish.
S&P 500: Large-caps were less sanguine about the downgrade of a positive Greek-Euro deal. The S&P sold off mildly to the middle of the recent trading range. Nonlinear trading analysis is beginning to hint (not yet confirm) that blue chips won’t have the energy to move lower than the recent bottom (2075 ,SPX basis). So the best approach is to give stocks a couple more days to bottom and see if a buy could be in the offing. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX trading model has also suggested limited upside (though an upside retest of 15.75 on the $VIX is not impossible). The basic move here is opposite the S&P 500 strategy.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.
Gold: The recent breakout failed as the media touted a Monday morning turn-for the-better in Euro-Greece debt negotiations. It looked like another game of kick-the-can to me. But clearly my skepticism is in the minority as gold dropped heavily in the aftermath (Monday and Tuesday). Today’s closing level is very close to the previous buy level on the GLD (June 4th). The current theme is still bullish with an oversold feel to it. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps, laboriously, ticked higher on the Greek-feel-good news but the S&P closed about where it did last Thursday (June 18th). Maybe the good-times are still to come. The current read is still that we are range-bound. Recent trading activity has us hovering near the top end of the range. Translation: ‘be careful about buying here.’ The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): Largecap price compression is the opposite of healthy for volatility. The preproduction VIX trading model exited a useful short (it is now flat) but the index still moved lower. There is no indication of an upside reversal yet.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.
Gold: Breakout! The previous theme of limited-selling played itself out on 6/17 as the bears tried unsuccessfully to push the yellow metal down, but instead the day ended with an upside reversal. 6/18 was an bullish breakout. The new theme should feature move active buying. Upside target: 118. The current signal looks very good. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps jumped today as well. However our system has not generated a buy yet. Our preproduction VIX signal did generate a sell (VIX tends to be inverse to the underlying market) recently so the theme for this market is a trading range with the top being 2135. The S&P 500 model is still flat. (note: the official signal for 6/9 was “exit Short” not “exit Long”, both are flat signals but we were short previous to the 9th).
$VIX (S&P volatility): The preproduction VIX trading model is now negative (VIX sure moves fast). So taken with the S&P flat signal, this indicates we can expect largecaps to be rangebound for now.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold lifted today as the nonlinear trading signal analysis inspired dearth-of-sellers theme met a modestly unsettling market backdrop of a Greece exit and possible Fed positional changes (both issues are heavy on talk, light on action). We are still higher than our entry signal. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps are pretty close to our exit levels. The recent advantage of the signals is that we avoided getting hit with a sizable whipsaw. I don’t have to tell grizzled traders how good that feels. So now what? We look for the next tradable move. But for now, the S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX trading signals are close (but inverse) to the S&P signals. But now both are flat. Missing the rapid 2-day rally was tougher. But you can’t catch every trade.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold broke down in early June, signaling some to expect lower prices (a now-trending-down interpretation) however the gold bears still have a problem. Nonlinear trading analysis has gold pegged as crazy oversold. This theme effectively means all the risk is on the bearish side of the table (or in other words the next “surprise” will be one that pops prices up). I expect sellers to be skittish. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: Largecaps popped after we issued the signal to clear out the shorts, so we seem to be still in synch with the current trading. The next step? We need to see more trading to help clarify where we are on this asset class The S&P 500 model is still flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): We did well with this last pre-production signal as well (and we are now flat). Low end of recent trading is 12.00. We are getting close. But traders need to take care, as this index has piled up a lot of bodies over the years.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold is hovering near our entry signal level. We may see a pickup in buyers going into the weekend. Nonlinear analysis has this pegged as crazy oversold. We still expect a bounce. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
S&P 500: We are issuing an exit short signal on stocks. The CTM downside target (2070) was essentially in intraday trading. The market is largely oversold, so some type of pause or reaction rally could be the next action. This is the first complete signal with v2.0. Round one goes to CTM. The S&P 500 model is now flat.
$VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX model is now flat also. This index moves so rapidly, further modification may be required to make it more useful, but I am encouraged with the first round (a fairly positive trade).
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold fell through the 113.50 (GLD basis) support level but not decisively. However, nonlinear trading analysis is interpreting the price action as the market is now significantly oversold. We are issuing a bullish signal based on today’s trading. The model Gold portfolio is now bullish
S&P 500: The June 1st sell is doing well. The S&P 500 dropped through its recent trading range. Unlike gold, nonlinear trading analysis is not indicating it is oversold. Price target is approximately 2070 (low of the month of May). The S&P 500 model remains bearish.
$VIX (S&P volatility): VIX model designing work continues. Preproduction model issued a buy on May 27th and the opinion persists. Expectations of higher volatility numbers are a warning of lower stock prices to come.
Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Gold: Gold dropped below near-term support at approximately the 112 -112.50 (GLD basis) level. Nonlinear trading signals had anticipated the support to hold here. continues to press lower, possibly hunting for stops below the June 5th Now what? GLD did pick up some buy intraday and managed to close near the high of the trading range. Additionally the yellow metal is now fairly oversold. Making a move now is probably not a good idea. The model Gold portfolio is still long.
S&P 500: The line (loosely) goes ‘much sound and fury, signifying nothing.’ The S&P dive on the 29th and the muscular turn around today puts the blue-chip index at approximately the same level as our last go-to-flat signal on June 9th. VIX readings suggest the next major move will be up (or flat) but I cannot get nonlinear signal confirmation of that for the stock index itself. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
