Tag Archives: GLD trading signals

What Will Terror Attack on the US Do? (BRL, GLD)

Model Notes: The late breaking news on the shooting in California helped topple equities (previous $VIX buy had us on the right side of this), but may have ramifications on other markets as well. At this writing, a motive was not disclosed, however extremist attack odds have the edge as recent ‘homegrown’ attacks have featured lone gunmen in movie theaters (Louisiana and Colorado) not a team of shooters. We will see as the news filters out.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (goodbye). Brazilian real for December (hello). S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) sell signal = 12/02 (TSP=waiting),. The Brazilian real long signal 11/30 (TSP=3.853).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151202gGold: The yellow metal dropped today and as the GLD was trading during the initial news of the US shootings, it is interesting to note there was no buying. The models have spent most of the month flat, searching for an entry. The indicators are now signaling a drop ahead. The model gold portfolio is now short.
  • CTM151202rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): The shallow downticks after the ‘buy’ signal are actually constructive as it gives bullish traders the opportunity to take a position. The Real model remains

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Enter the Brazilian Real, December’s Feature (Buy Signal)

Model Notes: We lead with the December feature market: The Brazilian real. The models pick up a buy the last day of November on the currency of the largest economy in South America. Saying ‘hello’ to the December feature means saying ‘goodbye’ to November’s spotlight, the VIX. I will be posting a post-mortem on this later in the month. The model had one narrowly positive trade for the time period despite the fact it had to contend with the sneak Paris terror attack, which did not make things easier. Finally, we have gold. The yellow metal is finding it difficult to pick a bottom. Maybe by the end of the week.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (goodbye). Brazilian real for December (hello). S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Buy=11/25 (TSP=15.12). The Brazilian real long signal 11/30 (TSP=waiting).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151130gGold: Last week’s comments centered on the yellow metal trying to base at 102. Today’s close (GLD basis) was 101.92, so we are still in the area. The models are setting up for a possible entry later in the week. But we are not there yet. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151130vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): The ‘sell’ TSP was higher than the following ‘buy’ TSP so we have a narrow positive trade. The last trading day of the month was higher than the buying TSP so there was some useful information there. The model VIX portfolio ends the month long.
  • CTM151130rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): We start the month long with a ‘buy’ on the last day of the November. The general recent action on the currency has been range-bound, The models see more strength ahead. The B-real model is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

The Tide is set to Turn (VIX Buy Signal)

Model Notes: The VIX buy signal occurs after a trading day where the close is below the selling TSP. Comparing the November 27 close to the previous TSP of November 09 will tell the tale as whether this is a win or not. On the gold side, the exit short signal has been constructive as it has positioned us to a neutral position during relatively flat market action against a backdrop of an unexpected and sizable terror attack against a major western country. The models are keeping pace. By the way, the Conquer the Mummy website wishes a Happy Thanksgiving to our readers and advises to take a moment to look higher!

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Buy=11/25 (TSP=Waiting)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151125gGold: GLD seems to be holding at the 102 level for now. I have some evidence we are approaching an entry signal in the next 5 trading days. But we are not there yet. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151125vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): Largecaps held up well in the aftermath of the Paris attacks but recent trading appears to have the bulls stalling out. The VIX models are now signaling more upside for volatility. Will there be more attacks during the important Christmas shopping season? I hope not but the modes suggest there is increasing risk. The model VIX portfolio is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Markets React to Terror Attack (GLD, $VIX)

Model Notes: The markets struggle to deal with the effects of the terror attack on France. So how did the models fare? The gold model had us on the sidelines and this is a pretty good read for a turbulent,  news-oriented period of trading. The VIX model was caught off-guard (i.e. short) but after three trading days, Wednesday’s closing price is very close to the sell signal TSP. Barring more surprises, the future looks hopeful.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Sell=11/06 (TSP=16.52)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151118gGold: GLD managed to push below the 104 support area but the technicals are oversold and thus not particularly bearish for the near-term future. If the market has dropped 15 trading days, don’t the next 15 to be the same. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151118vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): The surprise Islamic extremist attack on France has introduced more risk in the market, thus moving the VIX up. So now what? The models indicate that the Nov 13 trading high is probably the zenith of the near-term trading range. The model VIX portfolio remains short.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

VIX Sell TSP is Good ($VIX)

Model Notes: The VIX signal starts out with a sell short TSP of 16.52 (highest closing price of approx. 3 weeks) and that is very good. If stocks can hold these level, the VIX could find itself on the ropes. This model is in sync. And Gold? The 10/20 sell (TSP 111.73, GLD basis) and then covering with a TSP of 105.97 is a very respectable profit for a two-week trade. So this model is also in sync.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Sell=11/06 (TSP=16.52)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151111gGold: The yellow metal is oversold and the GLD is finding support around the 104 level. Being flat is the correct position. It is too oversold to short and the last 4 trading days has not yet formed a bottom substantial enough to buy. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151111vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): We now have this market in play. The 11/06 sell signal and the TSP of 16.52 gives us the first round. If the S&P can hold here, we could easily see a resulting VIX drop to the 13 level (a respectable profit). The model VIX portfolio remains short.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

VIX Sell, Here We Go! ($VIX)

Model Notes: VIX triggers a sell, first entry signal for the feature market for November. The volatility index has been stagnant for 3-weeks. Now non-linear analysis calls for lower values ahead.  And gold? The last trade was very profitable. Now the yellow metal models are searching for a new opportunity.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Sell=11/06 (TSP=waiting for the next closing trade)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151107gGold: The 10/20 – 11/03 signal was a very good trade. The yellow metal continues to push lower despite being technically oversold. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151107vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): We got an entry signal (sell) based on Friday’s data. The market has been in trading range for three weeks. Indications are for lower prices. This should be a plus for the current S&P rally. The model VIX portfolio is now short..

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

11/03 Exit signal, 11/04 TSP, Sweet! (GLD)

 

11/03 Exit signal, 11/04 TSP, Sweet!  (GLD)

Model Notes: The gold model is flat with a TSP of 105.97 (good!). The previous 10/07 exit long was positive too. The gold model is in sync. On the VIX side, we are still flat and waiting for a signal. The good news is the VIX status is positive for stocks.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (Vix) Flat, waiting for signal.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151105gGold: The 10/20 – 11/03 signal was a very good trade. The yellow metal is now oversold. Downside potential is slight and there is no indication of reversal. Flat is great. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
  • CTM151103vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): Still waiting. A flat Vix is salubrious for stocks to advance.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold Model Exits Short (Nice Move!) (GLD)

Model Notes: The gold model issued an exit the short signal. This proved to be a lucrative trade based on the previous short signal (10/20 , TSP= 111.73). Additionally to making money, there were a couple of nice nuances.  First, after the sell signal, the market did not melt away, so the trader had five days to actually enter  the position before the breakdown. Secondly, the exit signal comes on a down day, providing a positive backdrop for closing the trade out.  How about the VIX? The models are flat (waiting for an entry). So is there any news? A flat volatility reading at a relative low level is positive for stocks.

Featured market rotation: VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=waiting), (Vix) Flat, waiting for signal.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151103gGold: Gold experienced a precipitous drop and the models are now indicating to exit the short trade. GLD is now near support so the exit signal has some technical underpinning. The model gold portfolio signal is now flat..
  • CTM151103vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): We are still waiting for an entry signal of some sort. I have some indication of a solution later in the week. The current reading is helpful for the S&P 500 rally.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold Breaks Down (GLD)

Model Notes: The gold model is short and the gold market broke down, with the GLD closing near the previous exit TSP. So the yellow metal model is in good shape. Bonds (the featured October market) proved to have a more challenging time. The TLO didn’t drop after the late-Sept sell and the only other action was a late-Oct buy that was not terrible (TSP was on a down day for the entry and the final trading day was positive) but not profitable on the outset. I will do a post-mortem shortly. I plan to do more model work in this area and have scheduled a rematch for March.

Featured market rotation: Bonds for October (waving goodbye)  VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Short= 10/20 (TSP=111.73), (Bonds/TLO) Buy =10/27 (TSP= 71.68)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151030gGold: The yellow metal broke below the 111 (GLD basis) support level. Next stop 107? The model gold portfolio is still short.
  • CTM151030bBonds (Oct. Featured Market): We are waving good-bye to this area. I had hoped for more signal activity. I plan to visit this area (with model enhancements) in rematch for March.
  • CTM151030vVIX (Nov. Featured Market): I spent almost two weeks at the end of October to get an initial entry signal but no luck. VIX starts November flat. On the plus side, the implication is that stocks will continue to rise.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Dominant Trend is Now Up (TLO)

Model Notes: The bond model changed signal position to “up”  today. This comes after being short for the entire month of October. From a model perspective the, this market has been in a tight trading range and thus tough to call a direction. On the plus side, the model avoided the pitfall of a series of whipsaws that plagues many linear trend following models in these situation. So no: chop, chop, chop. The gold model is still short and waiting for more substantial selloff to develop.

Featured market rotation: Bonds for October (waiving goodbye soon)  VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Short= 10/20 (TSP=42.76), (Bonds/TLO) Buy =10/27 (TSP= waiting)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151027gGold: The yellow metal has been selling off after the 10/20 sell signal but without much gusto. Support is currently at 111 (GLD basis). The current pause on the downside does not look like a classic technical bottom. The model is indicating lower prices. The model gold portfolio is still short.
  • CTM151027bBonds (Oct. Featured Market): The TLO model flipped to “buy” today. The model has been a staunch supporter of a Fed move before the end of the year. But now this has changed. If you look at the dominant monthly trend (bottoms on 10/8, 10/20 and 10/23), it is now pointing upward. So the Fed holds its fire a little longer. What will the country do? The model bond portfolio is now bullish.
  • VIX (Nov. Featured Market) Trading Signals (no chart shown yet): I starting looking for an entry signal recently and simply got non-trending readings. This has been positive for stocks. So far, no buy signal. Stocks should continue up for now. I am still searching for an entry signal.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
  • The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”