Model Notes: The S&P closed below the TSP for the recent sell. So the 3/08 buy to the 4/15 sell was a great trade and now the current short is in-the-money. The stock model is definitely in sync with the underlying market. Gold? Well the first trade was not, but since 4/01 (the go flat signal) the models have registered no trading trend and the yellow metal does seem range bound. The next entry signal (and the following exit) will tell.
April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500. Look for wheat (core) and USD (featured ) for May.
Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= 2094.34)
Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Gold Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. core market) The models are not detecting any real directional trend. The technicals have resistance at 120 or so (GLD basis). Some may make the case that if stocks soften, gold buyers will come in. But rates have been ticking up recently and that can’t be good for gold bulls. Models are signaling flat.
- S&P 500 Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. feature): What can you say? The models are tracking well. The S&P 500 is set to reverse, possibly aided by less positive takes on some of the earnings news. The models are short. Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.
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GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”