Monthly Archives: April 2016

Stocks dipping their toe below selling TSP ($spx)

Model Notes: The S&P closed below the TSP for the recent sell. So the 3/08 buy to the 4/15 sell was a great trade and now the current short is in-the-money. The stock model is definitely in sync with the underlying market. Gold? Well the first trade was not, but since 4/01 (the go flat signal) the models have registered no trading trend and the yellow metal does seem range bound. The next entry signal (and the following exit) will tell.

April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500. Look for wheat (core) and USD (featured ) for May.

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= 2094.34)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160421gGold Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. core market) The models are not detecting any real directional trend. The technicals have resistance at 120 or so (GLD basis). Some may make the case that if stocks soften, gold buyers will come in. But rates have been ticking up recently and that can’t be good for gold bulls. Models are signaling flat.
  • CTM160421sS&P 500 Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. feature): What can you say? The models are tracking well. The S&P 500 is set to reverse, possibly aided by less positive takes on some of the earnings news. The models are short. Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

 

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stock Model gives the go short signal, good trade though. ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model gave the short signal. This has been a good trade (3/08 signal). This is a classic standoff between linear and nonlinear in stocks. If you look at the chart all seems well, but nonlinear analysis is usually not apparent in the early stages. We will see how this plays out. Gold retreated from recent resistance levels. I wonder what the models wil  say we we hit support?

March and April Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (the next rotations are weat and the US dollar for May.

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 sell on 4/15 (TSP= waiting for Monday’s close).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations as it gives a future price to trade.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160415gGold Trading Signals (core market) The yellow metal fell back when faced with short-term resistance and a firmer stock market. Support is around 115 (GLD basis). Maybe we can pick up a buy later. For now the yellow metal is flat.
  • CTM160415sS&P 500 Trading Signals (featured): The S&P 500 model is signaling a reversal. The 3/08 signal was a pretty good buy. But we know overstaying a trade is not healthy. We will have to see what Monday’s close is for the TSP. I was hoping for 2100 on the big caps. Well, we got close.

Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. Portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

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GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stocks preparing to lift? ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model seems to be still in sync with the underlying market. We are well north of the entry TSP. Today’s strength may be signaling the pause is over and higher prices lay ahead. The systems struggled on the gold front. Initially, the models thought the yellow metal was going to trend up, but now have it as non-trending. If you think about it, GLD prices are about where they were a month ago. I think the gold model is now in sync.

March Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (I am now keeping the March markets for April).

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 buy on 3/08 (TSP= 1989.26)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160412gGold Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. core market) Last week’s monster reversal day (April 7) featured limited follow-through buying this week. GLD seems to be finding resistance around 120. I wonder what would happen if interest rates started to tick up? Anyway, the models are advising neutral so flat continues to be the rule of the day.
  • CTM160412sS&P 500 Trading Signals (Mar. and Apr. feature): The S&P 500 is stair-stepping its way forward. Today’s strength may foreshadow some upward motion. Earnings concerns are not helpful here. The trend is still up and the models are looking higher. Prices. Are we ready to march to 2100, finally?

Note: Market comments feature technical analysis to discuss underlying market trends defined by nonlinear models.

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! Click the “Ranking” tab to find out more.

 

GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Stocks stall ($spx)

Model Notes: The stock model seems to be still in sync with the underlying market. We are well north of the entry TSP, and while we had a volatile week, we have not seen anything like a classic reversal. We had less luck on the last gold call. Our entry was followed by selling. Today’s moon-shot like rally (after our exit) was the cherry on the stink pot. Oh well, nobody said it would be easy.

March Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (I am now keeping the March markets for April).

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=116.15), S&P 500 buy on 3/08 (TSP= 1989.26)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160407gGold (Mar. and Apr. core market) This market had a moon-shot today, closing not terribly far from our original entry. Sheesh! Recent trading is not revealing much of a trend and the models agree. Flat is the rule of the day.
  • CTM160407sS&P 500 (Mar. and Apr. feature): The S&P 500 has received some selling this week, but it looks like more of a pause and less like a reversal. Last post I said 2100 or bust. I hope it is 2100.  The stock model stays bullish.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a ranking product for institutional clients engaged in asset allocation. I will be using the trading signal technology with a longer time frame to aid in portfolio construction for money managers. I have introductory rates (as low as $5,000 a quarter). Click the ‘ranking’ tab to see more. I have a limited number of slots to fill. I can fill the need for independent research.
  • Remember: Non-linear trading analysis is non-apparent and therefore like “insider knowledge” for standard technical analysis. Be the first to get a “head-up” for coming moves.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.” Get your independent research here!

Gold model heads to the sidelines. (GLD)

Model Notes: The gold model kicked us out of the losing trade. Friday’s action had positive aspects (settling well off the session lows) but against a backdrop of sellers pressing the support level and down-trending technicals, getting out is probably the right thing to do. Let’s see what kind of TSP we get. Stock readings are still bullish. It’s 2100 or bust. I am introducing an exciting new product to the institutional market: Asset class ranking!  Check the tab. We will be using the trading technology on a longer timeframe to help portfolio managers out-perform. This is economical and smart.

March Rotations: Core Gold, Featured: S&P 500 (I am now keeping the same markets for April).

Model Portfolio Signals: GLD flat on 4/1 (TSP=waiting), S&P 500 buy on 3/08 (TSP= 1989.26)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160401gGold (Mar. and Apr. core market) Sellers are pressing the 117 support level (GLD basis) and short term action is displaying down trending characteristics (lower lows and lower highs). The models want none of it. The gold model is signaling flat. We have to see what we get out at with Monday’s close (the TSP value).
  • CTM160401sS&P 500 (Mar. and Apr. feature): The S&P 500 closed at the highest close of the week. The siren song to 2100 seems the favorite bet. The models agree. The stock model stays bullish.

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a ranking product for institutional clients engaged in asset allocation. I will be using the trading signal technology with a longer time frame to aid in portfolio construction for money managers. I have introductory rates (as low as $5,000 a quarter). Click the ‘ranking’ tab to see more. I have a limited number of slots to fill.
  • I am now offering reasonable rates to institutional clients to get access to our mathematically inspired signals. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info. I have a limited number of slots to fill.
  • Remember: Non-linear trading analysis is non-apparent and therefore like “insider knowledge” for standard technical analysis. Be the first to get a “head-up” for coming moves.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”