Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Enter Long 5/19, S&P 500 awaiting revisions
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold fell back today but recent price action may not be as bearish as it appears first glance. During the monthly chart we are seeing the emergence of support around the 113 level (GLD basis). This basing action should limit downside potential. Especially with a backdrop of possible global political event. Nonlinear trading analysis moved positive. The model Gold portfolio is now on a buy.
S&P 500: The S&P models have been refitted with v2.0 but there was no recent entry, so we are simply waiting for a signal. I expect something this week or next.
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Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Exit Long 5/12, S&P 500 awaiting revisions
Technical Read:
Gold: Gold moved significantly higher on 5/13, the first trading day after the CTM website issued it’s exit long signal. This was a pretty good day to exit. GLD is now up against resistance levels set in early April. Also GLD sold off the highs at the end of the day. With the yellow metal overbought, the best move is to wait for further indications of direction and a nonlinear trading analysis inspired enty. The model Gold portfolio remains flat.
S&P 500: I am refitting the S&P models with the (2.0) revision, I expect to have this chart back online sometime next week. There will be another 30-day trial. If all goes well, my next project (you may want to sit down before reading further) will be largecap volatility ($VIX). I have been doing volatility related work recently. Can nonlinear trading analysis provide insight into future VIX spikes? We will be finding out.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Exit Long 5/12, S&P 500 awaiting revisions
Technical Read:
Gold: The yellow metal tested the 113 (GLD basis) support level several times over the last 15-days and rallied to modestly higher levels. (Putin is going to meet with Kerry, I hope the Earth does not explode when those egos are in the in the same place). However, nonlinear trading analysis has signaled to move us to neutral with today’s data. This is the first signal from the major revision (2.0). I suspect we will be getting more frequent signals going forward but we will have to see. Model Gold portfolio is now flat.
S&P 500: I am refitting the S&P models with the (2.0) revision, I expect to have this chart back online sometime next week. There will be another 30-day trial. If all goes well, my next project (you may want to sit down before reading further) will be largecap volatility ($VIX). I have been doing volatility related work recently. Can nonlinear trading analysis provide insight into future volatility spikes? I will be finding out.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 awaiting revisions
Technical Read:
Gold: The trading trend has weakened in the past trading days. Nonlinear trading analysis is not negative yet. Currently the model portfolio is still long. In the process of working on models, occasionally new work leads to revisions. Starting today, several modest changes in the system are now in effect. I discuss this further in the S&P 500 portion of the comments.
S&P 500: The 30-day trial is over. The signals over the out-of-sample test period were instructive. Several revisions have come out of it. 1) The inference engine has been revised with the object to make the model slightly more active. 2) Volatility calculations have been changed. 3) One of the major studies (tools) has been given a new (modest) degree of freedom. While the changes are in effect today (going live) for gold, I need more time to apply them to the S&P. Therefore the current S&P 500 signals will cease for approximately 2 weeks. I will restart the signals then.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Long 4/27
Technical Read:
Gold: The yellow metal has had a rollercoaster ride over the past few days. The GLD briefly powered south of 114.5 (and 113.50 too!) before leaping on Monday. A game of inside baseball (Citigroup and Venezuelan central bank) was reported as a trigger event. The point is, sellers seem to have limitations on the downside, at least in terms of time. Nonlinear trading analysis is positive. Next stop 117.5? The model gold portfolio is long.
S&P 500: The largecap model reversed again, as nonlinear trading analysis skipped a stay in neutral ground, and moved straight to bullish. Though we have seen some down days over the past month, the general trend is up. As of today, the models see higher prices ahead in the S&P. The largecap model is now long. side.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Long 4/17, S&P 500 = Short 4/21
Technical Read:
Gold: Sellers pushed gold down on 4/22 but today (23rd) the market had a sizable rebound (back above 114.50, GLD basis). This week’s economic news featured an estimate of Chinese economic activity in April. China is a bulwark of growth against global deflationary pressures. So, economist beware. Nonlinear trading analysis is still supportive of higher prices in the yellow metal, but with less conviction. The model gold portfolio is long.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 has pushed high the last couple of days but closed only a meager 3pts above resistance at the 2110 level. The Nasdaq Composite posted a closing high (15 years) today. So we will have to see if prices retreat from here. Nonlinear trading analysis has us on the short side.
Premium offers:
Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
“Use nonlinear research to help determine the future direction of the S&P and trading can become much less complex.” GH Garrett
Gold: Gold fell back today but recent price action may not be as bearish as it appears first glance. During the monthly chart we are seeing the emergence of support around the 113 level (GLD basis). This basing action should limit downside potential. Especially with a backdrop of possible global political event. Nonlinear trading analysis moved positive. The model Gold portfolio is now on a buy.
