Model Notes: The bond model changed signal position to “up”  today. This comes after being short for the entire month of October. From a model perspective the, this market has been in a tight trading range and thus tough to call a direction. On the plus side, the model avoided the pitfall of a series of whipsaws that plagues many linear trend following models in these situation. So no: chop, chop, chop. The gold model is still short and waiting for more substantial selloff to develop.

Featured market rotation: Bonds for October (waiving goodbye soon)  VIX for November (looking for a starting signal now). Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Short= 10/20 (TSP=42.76), (Bonds/TLO) Buy =10/27 (TSP= waiting)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal has been selling off after the 10/20 sell signal but without much gusto. Support is currently at 111 (GLD basis). The current pause on the downside does not look like a classic technical bottom. The model is indicating lower prices. The model gold portfolio is still short.
• Bonds (Oct. Featured Market): The TLO model flipped to “buy” today. The model has been a staunch supporter of a Fed move before the end of the year. But now this has changed. If you look at the dominant monthly trend (bottoms on 10/8, 10/20 and 10/23), it is now pointing upward. So the Fed holds its fire a little longer. What will the country do? The model bond portfolio is now bullish.
• VIX (Nov. Featured Market) Trading Signals (no chart shown yet): I starting looking for an entry signal recently and simply got non-trending readings. This has been positive for stocks. So far, no buy signal. Stocks should continue up for now. I am still searching for an entry signal.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
• The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The gold model is changing its position from flat to short. Prices are pretty lofty and the odds seem to favor a pullback of some sort. The bond model (as shown on the TLO) is anticipating lower prices. The upcoming feature market for November is the $VIX. Going forward, I am looking for a pre-November entry to get set up for the action. Currently, we have volatility as flat (which probably is positive for the stock market).

Featured market rotation: Bonds for October. VIX for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Short= 10/20 (TSP=Wait), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.36)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal took the moonshot and is now pausing. The models issued an outright ‘sell short’ signal tonight. The recent jump has put this market in overbought territory so the change of position feels good. There are several upcoming issues that the gold bulls will have to contend with. US largecaps are pushing higher, an inter-market relationship that is not going to bring gold buyers to the table. The other issue is the looming Fed hike. The models are forecasting higher rates, another strike against the gold bulls. The model gold portfolio is now short.
• Bonds (Oct. Featured Market): The TLO is starting to feel heavy here with a trading high on Oct 2 and a lower high on Oct 14.  A close below the 50-day average may be enough to start the bond bears rolling. The model bond portfolio remains bearish.
• VIX (Nov. Featured Market) Trading Signals (no chart shown yet): I am looking for a signal to get this set up for trading analysis in November. The most recent signal is a resounding ‘flat’. So I am still searching for a future move to exploit.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
• The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: Models are being challenged this week. On the gold front, we closed out a good trade, but the market soared in the aftermath. The simple truism is that you can’t make every nickel. Next we go to bonds. The 9/24 sell signal is still the current position, however bonds continue to creep against it. And the model is not changing. We are expecting a hike of some sort.

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. VIX for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Exit Long= 10/07 (TSP=109.14), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.36)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the close of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal (GLD basis) took a moonshot, as US/Russian tensions in the Syria have pretty much chased the sellers away. Leaving money on the table is not a great feeling, but much better to make some and bail than to be caught on the wrong side. So what now? Wait for the model reset and to identify the next trade. The model gold portfolio remains flat.
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): TLO will not give up the ghost here and drop and this week saw bonds creep higher. There is a lot of speculation as to what the Fed will or will not do. The models do not see a lot of upside here.  The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
• The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The gold model is doing well. The recent exit was well north of the entry (TSP to TSP). Following the exit, GLD moved up but there is significant resistance at these levels. Bonds are more problematical. The 9/24 signal (and the resulting poor TSP) has spent 2 weeks “out of the money.” On the plus side, the Oct 2^nd downside reversal has capped the rally (remember we are short). The signal still points down, hence the “waiting game” comment.

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. VIX for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Exit Long= 10/07 (TSP=waiting), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.36)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the close of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal (GLD basis) is now near a multi-month high not seen since the dark days of the Chinese (followed by the S&P 500) stock market sell-off. But while gold is at these levels again, the S&P 500 is making gains to retrace to pre-crash levels. So being flat is not an unpleasant situation. The model gold portfolio remains flat.
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): The TLO is higher than the 9/24 TSP level, but not really running away. The model sees higher rates (lower bonds). A logic walk-through goes like this: The Fed wants to do the lone rate hike but has been stymied by recent bad jobs data and “advice” from both the World and IMF (peer pressure). The Fed wants to do the hike as the endless speculation on whether they do it or not has become counter-productive (they promised to do one soon). The recent rally in stocks (aka a prominent leading indicator of the economy) will give them the cover to act. The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
• The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The gold model did a pretty good job over the last month. The entry TSP of 106.13 (GLD basis) was at the low end of the 30-day trading range. We won’t know what the exit long TSP is until after the close of tomorrow, but if it is near the 2 previous closing prices, it will be near the high end of the same 30-day range. This is very good performance.

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. Stocks for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Exit Long= 10/07 (TSP=waiting), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.36)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the close of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: Poor jobs data really change the gold trading dynamic, sending the yellow metal higher. Today’s exit long signal is a recognition that gold is becoming more vulnerable to a retrenchment. Especially, if stocks keep the rally going. The model gold portfolio is now flat.
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): The 9/24 sell signal is shackled with a less-than-optimal TSP. Nevertheless, the models see more downside ahead. If stocks continue to pick up the tail wind, the Fed may be emboldened to squeeze out a hike this year after all. The IMF disagrees, as Jose Vinals (Monetary and Capital Markets Director), advised against a Fed nudge. Oh well, as the saying goes, those that can “do”, and those that can’t give advice to the Fed. The TLO has been  trading below the 72 resistance level (TLO basis) for several days now. The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .
• The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTehMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: This is the last chart for the US dollar (Sept featured market). I will post a post-mortem shortly under the “Forex Trading’ tab. This was a positive round for nonlinear trading analysis and the CTM website.  The gold market failed to hold support this week. This is a concern as the models have this market as oversold. Still the TSP for the long trade is lower than today’s close (meaning the position is positive).

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.50)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: GLD pierced the 107.50 support level this week (Wed) but on the plus side, Thursday’s action did not exhibit much follow-through. Nonlinear readings are still on the oversold side of the issue. Friday may prove to be a setup for a bounce. The model gold portfolio is still long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): Waiving goodbye to the greenback (for now)!
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): The sell signal on 9/24 wasn’t bad but the TSP (70.50) is going to be an albatross. The market is pressing the signal. The market is trying to gauge if the Fed is going to act or not.  Yellan seemed to indicate a tightening this year, but who knows if the Fed can do it if the pointy-head economists from Europe start to criticize. The volatility of equities is keeping the bond sellers off balance. Anyway, we will see if 72 on the TLO is resistance point. The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
• Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis .

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: We issued an ‘exit long’ signal today for the US dollar (featured market for Sept). I will shortly publish a post-mortem under the “Forex Trading” tab, but the early look is good for the models as ‘buy’ signal between two higher ‘exit’ signals. So it is bonds for October!

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.50)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: Today was disappointing as GLD dropped further. Models are indicating oversold conditions and the GLD is conveniently near the 107 support level. I expect a bump up going into the weekend. The model gold portfolio is still long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The buy level (TSP) was good but the greenback is running into overhead resistance now. Model indications are waning. We pull the plug today. The model dollar portfolio is now flat.
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): The sell signal on 9/24 and the TSP of 70.50 (ouch) is still intact. Tuesday’s action is not really a breakout, I am expecting weakness ahead. Yellan has laid the groundwork for the sacrificial tightening before year’s end. The dollar looks to be topping as well. Finally, stocks are near the bottom of the recent trading range (implying a bounce). The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
• With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: I just posted on Gold and the dollar yesterday and those comments are still in effect. We are issuing the pre signal for bonds today. I like to have a signal posted for the new featured market a week or so before as this allows us to utilize the precious limited time-span to the fullest.

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00), (Bonds) Sell =9/24 (TSP= Waiting)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: No change from yesterday.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): No change from yesterday.
• Bonds (Oct Featured Market): I am setting up for October with this pre-feature sell signal. Yellan may have scored points with the World Bank for the recent ‘hold’ decision but not so much domestically. Bonds are now near the high end of the recent trading range but latter day action was not promising. The model indication is for the Fed to make a small move near-term. The model is issuing a sell. The model bond portfolio is now bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The models are still on track, with both gold and the US dollar exhibiting positive performance (i.e. both markets are higher than their TPSs). The Fed action (or inaction) is behind us. China and a possible US Government showdown may be the geo-political factors the models have to deal with in the near-term.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational. Going forward, I will be looking for a pre-October signal for bonds.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: Gold bounced off support at the mid-September base (105.50 GLD basis) and the recent selling days on the 21^st and 22^nd have not reversed that. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar’s knee-jerk reaction to the Fed decision proved to be an excellent trading buy point. The greenback is now at the top of the three-week trading range. Current indications are not for a reversal. The US dollar portfolio is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols.  Currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Model Notes: The Fed action sent gold higher (we were positive on that) and sent the dollar lower (we were flat on that). So the models, and their recent signals, seem to be in good shape. Remember, the TSP (theoretical signal price) is calculated by simply using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational. I plan to alter the price structure of the services I offer in the next week or so.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Long = 9/17 (TSP=waiting)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

• Gold: The yellow metal loved the decision, a trend to higher rates would have been quite a headwind. “Don’t rock the boat” Yellen is now caught in a tough place. If she needs council, I guess the World Bank is ready to lend a …mouth. The model gold portfolio remains long.
• US Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The dollar’s knee-jerk reaction was to sell-off. That is the technical result of no rate hike but the dollar still has some advantages (US economy and possibly a future rate hike). The model issued a buy based on today’s data. Technically, the greenback is oversold, with the next move likely to be a bounce. The US dollar portfolio is now long.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
• Forex Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
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GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”