A Sea Change? (WZ16, CLZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Sell 10/28 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Buy 10/28 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: Do we have a sea change starting to emerge? Hillary is being investigated by the FBI (she can’t blame the Russians) and both the models flipped. We must wait for the TSP to reveal whether the previous trades are profitable. Crude looking good, wheat is more problematic.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161028wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat looks to be meeting resistance as it approaches the highs from Oct. 14 ($4.30-ish). The new trend line is setting up as negative. The technical question here is going to be whether or not this is going to range-bound (approx. $3.90 to $4.30). Let’s check Monday’s close to see if the previous trade was a loss (or how big).
  • ctm161028cCrude (Featured). Now our model is reversing to the long side. The previous trade is likely to be positive. Friday was the lowest close of the month, so we are not expecting much follow-through selling.

Premium Research notes:

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”