Wheat signal goes flat. (WZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Flat 11/14 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Buy 10/28 (TSP= 46.86).

Model notes: My last post (“Sea change?”) proved prescient on the coming Trump victory as the nonlinear numbers detected a future rumble in the financial landscape (both models flipped 180 degrees). We are doing pretty well on the wheat front with our first trade scoring a small profit. Today’s signal (TSP to be determined) looks to be much better. How about crude? Our first completed trade scored just short of $2.50. But the current position is getting uncomfortably underwater.  We periodically update our models. On this round, we updated to v3.0 for the Oct-Nov cycle, however we still used the initial parameters of v2.0. CTM may update the parameters and run crude as our featured market for Dec-Jan. I was hoping to run a sample ranking (ala our premium product) during that time frame. Oh well.

Note: ALL Mummy calculations use the TSP (Theoretical Signal Price)! The TSP metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161114wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke down this week and the CTM models signaled to go flat (neutral). The TSP calculation is to follow, but initially this looks to be a good trade for us. Reset and look for another entry.
  • ctm161114cCrude (Featured). The previous completed trade was profitable but our current position is uncomfortably under water. Monday’s market action featured a reversal of sorts, the close settling well off the lows of the day. Today the market touched near the significant lows of early August. Where will we go from here? Nonlinear analysis suggests the bulls have the edge.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Nonlinear portfolio construction anyone? Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”