Wheat buy! (WZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Buy 10/20 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Sell 10/03 (TSP= 49.30).

Model notes: We got the wheat signal (buy). It took us a while but the erratic daily volatility was probably a good thing to avoid. Crude reversed today. We are still out of the money, but the signal still looks promising.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161020wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke north of its range (approx. $3.90 to $4.10) but paused in the aftermath. The models are now positive. So a minor breakout and a recent uptrend. We are looking for higher ground here. We have the buy and are hoping for a good entry at tomorrow’s close.
  • ctm161020cCrude (Featured). Crude reversed to the downside, again finding resistance at the 52 area. Let’s see if we can get some follow-through selling here. The models remain short and we are looking lower.


Premium Research notes:

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

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Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”