Interest Rates Ticking Up (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= 29.93).

Model notes: Our first signal in the new time period is the “Long” TBT signal (July 6), and the market is ticking up, so the model does seem to be in sync with reality. The call suggests we have a near-term bottom in interest rates. The gold market is another story. July action has not been very decisive. Gold initially moved up, then fell back a bit. The GLD is near the level it trading on June 30. The Model has kept us out of a non-trending market. Sound goods to me.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160714gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is starting the month off at a slow pace. The GLD is near the trading level of June 30. We are evaluating the models looking for a signal, and a chance to enter a trade. For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160714bInterest Rates (Featured). Do we have a near-term bottom in place? The models are suggesting that. The TBT is bouncing off the July 8 washout lows. The model interest rate portfolio is now long the TBT.


Premium Research notes:

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GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”