Interest Rate model goes flat (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat (Exit long) 7/19 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: The rate model issued a ‘flat’ signal (exit long). The market is generally higher than the 7/06 buy so this is probably going to prove to be a good trade, but we will have to wait for the TSP to get the final verdict. The gold model is not showing any action yet. On the plus side the GLD is very close to its monthly closing price on June 30. If there is no opportunity it is better to stay out before some adverse news event pops out of the closet to get your money!

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160719gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is flat for the month in terms of today’s close versus the close on June 30. The models don’t see that changing soon. The model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160719bInterest Rates (Featured). The TBT (interest rates) bounced off the recent lows and moved the rate higher than the July 6 signal TSP. Today the model signaled an exit (go to flat). This plays into the general theme of anemic economic growth and the impression that the Yellen-led Fed is going to do everything NOT to act. Anyway the model interest rate portfolio is now flat.


Premium Research notes:

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