Interest Rates Retreating (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat 7/19 (TSP= 31.71).

Model notes: The TBT is retreating (meaning rates are going down) in the aftermath of the July 19 sell. The TSP values of the trades this month have been great with the ‘long’ entry TSP at the second lowest close of the month so far. The July 19 exit (flat) TSP was the second highest of the month so far. Buy low, exit high. This model is in sync. What about the yellow metal? We are still waiting on a high confidence signal here. The plus side is that the market is near its start point (June 30). So in its own way the model is in sync too.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160728gGold Trading Signals (Core). GLD reversed to the downside today but we have pretty solid support just 2 points lower. This doesn’t seem like a lucrative opportunity yet (either way). For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160728bInterest Rates (Featured). Our July 19 exit signal caught a favorable bounce to exit at the next day’s close. Since then the TBT has been headed down. Support at 29.5. The model interest rate portfolio is flat the TBT.


Premium Research notes:

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GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”