Gold and Interest rates rotate on (GLD, TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: We are moving to July and August with our old standby (Gold) and interest rates (TBT). I am very excited to proceed with interest rates with our latest model revisions as this has been the most resistant to nonlinear modeling. I suspect it involves the Government intervention (Fed) however we should have better results this time.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160705gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is staring off slow as far as a signal is concerned. The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading features the yellow metal climbing but at fairly high levels. The models are conflicted; thus we have a flat signal so far on this one.
  • CTM160705bInterest Rates (Featured). The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading for interest rates managed to push our models on buy. So, to be clear, we are now expecting higher interest rates going forward. The implications for this are constructive for the economy in general. The model interest rate model is now long the TBT.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”