Dollar struggles, but support is near. ($usd)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar

Signals: Wheat= Short 6/14 (TSP 478.25), USD= Long 5/11 (TSP 94.13)


Model notes: The latter half of June has been rough on the models. Wheat is (so far) 3 for 3 but I lost a fair amount of ground in the recent selloff. But the models do seem in sync. The dollar model signals have suffered more as we only have one trade, most of the time has been spent in the money but we are now dipping our toe in the red ink of loss-land. But we could have a bounce. Is the greenback model in sync? This one may go down to the line (June 30).

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160620wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat has moved dropped, real support is near the 455 level. The brief pop on June 17 did not get any follow-through. Wheat model is negative and the bears seem to have the edge.
  • CTM160620uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). The greenback is struggling. Each day seems to push it a little lower (we recently anyway) but the models are positive and we have real trading support at the 93.50 level. So the bet is bullish. The model dollar portfolio is positive.


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GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”