Brexit rocks the markets but not CTM! ($usd)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar.

Signals: Wheat= Long 6/24 (TSP= waiting), USD= Short 6/24 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: Wow. The British choose freedom over (promised) prosperity. ConquerTheMummy (CTM) nonlinear analysis was not fooled by the parade of luminaries (including Obama) predicting a “remain” vote. Good Job. What now? Both the dollar and wheat models have reversed based on today’s movements. I believe that nonlinear analysis may well shed light on many things to come. It is a great time to be following the CTM website.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160624wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Brexit was negative on wheat, which was okay as we were short. The grain picked up support near the 455 level (which we have talked about before). The nonlinear models indicate we are now in a buy mode. The model wheat portfolio is now long. Note: Our core market for July-August will be gold.
  • CTM160624uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). The greenback (post Brexit) pop pushed our long position back into the money and the nonlinear models then reversed to short. The model dollar model is now bearish. Please note: The next featured market for July-August is going to be either US Bonds or interest rates.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: on one of my recent sales phone calls to an analyst, I was told it was very hard to get independent research in the firm. it amazed me as that fund family featured a 2-star fund (Morningstar, 3yr window) in its offering. Using independent research helps to combat institutional bias. CTM rates on our asset class ranking are very reasonable as well. If you are struggling with returns, please contact me, let’s see if I can help. Don’t sit around your Monday meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund on the books.

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”