Dollar getting some lift, bears withdraw ($usd)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar

Signals: Wheat= Short 6/14 (TSP= waiting), USD= Long 5/11 (TSP 94.13)

Model notes: The bears riding the early June selloff on the dollar seem to be pulling back as the greenback gets some lift. I would have liked the model to have gotten us out before the drop and then back in, but the one-day drop was tough to catch. The dollar model seems back in sync. On the wheat side, the recent selling seems to be stronger than warranted for a true uptrend.  We will have to see how this runs the course. Anyway, we have the sell from the model on wheat.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160614wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Earlier I commented on wheat punching north of its previous trading range. The models now indicate this latest move is just an extension of the trading range, and that a drop back to the 455 area is likely. The wheat model is now short. We will have to see what the TSP (tomorrow’s close).
  • CTM160614uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). The 6/3 considerable drop picked up limited follow-through selling. The models are now signaling higher prices and the greenback seems to be headed (again) to the 96 level. The trade is still positive (current close to TSP). The model dollar portfolio is long.


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GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”