Model Gold Portfolio: Sell 2/26, previous signal, neutral (exit long 2/17)
Technical Read: Gold popped up at the opening today before selling off the highs by the end of trading. The GLD is now at the high-end of its recent trading range. From a chart standpoint the trend is still down. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are now signaling more selling pressure waits. I do not expect 115 (GLD basis) to hold. The model portfolio is now bearish (today’s signal).
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 ticked down 3pts on today’s trading. Weekly jobless claims fell 21,000. In the aftermath, interest rates advanced. The Fed is still being noncommittal as to when the tightening begins. It is a cinch, it won’t be tomorrow. Nonlinear readings are positive for largecaps, so I expect higher equity prices. This is modestly bearish for gold.
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Neutral (exit long 2/17)
Technical Read: Gold has been trading quietly over the past 5 day (115-116, GLD basis). Nonlinear trading analysis readings are neutral, so the 115 level is not likely to hold. Gold has basically been in a grinding decline since late-Jan highs. The model portfolio remains neutral. I am looking for a new trade based on my readings, but the numbers are not giving me any trending indications yet.
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – Largecaps seem comfortable after breaking out of their recent range (2070, S&P 500 basis). Nonlinear readings are constructive for higher prices. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cam in at 54.3 in February, besting economists estimates and the previous month’s readings as well. This is modestly bearish for gold.
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Neutral (exit long 2/17), previous Long (1/27)
Technical Read: Neutral signal today. This has been a tough trade for the ConquertheMummy.com. Gold strength faded after the pulse up generated from the Swiss central bank surprise. I expected higher highs in the aftermath, but it was not meant to be. Support at 120 and 118 levels (GLD basis) failed to hold. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are in a neutral mode (negative but too oversold) at this time. The model portfolio is now neutral. I will be looking for a new entry going forward.
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 has moved north of its recent trading range. Recent news out of negotiations between EuroLand and Greece were not particularly good, but markets seem to be priceing in that a bailout will occur. This is bearish for gold.
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)
Technical Read: Gold edged lower today but closed in line with the levels of Jan 14, AKA the last closing trade before the Swiss central bank surprise de-link announcement. This corresponds with the 118 level, GLD basis. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are flat-lining but still positive. The most likely result is a rally from the current oversold levels. Still long.
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 rallied but the closing price is still contained within the recent range (1990- 2070). This largely neutral for gold (i.e. well behaved price action).
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)
Technical Read: Gold dropped precipitously Friday, and dropped through recent support (120 level, GLD basis). Does this automatically mean to sell (go short)? No. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are still supportive and near-term price action is oversold. We would have liked to miss Friday’s decline but a bounce is more likely than not. The long signal continues to be viable.
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – Bigcaps hit sellers Friday, at the top end of the range (2070, S&P 500 basis). This was generally expected. US blue chips are looking for direction, caught between superior US growth expectations (bullish) and global deflation/slowdown fears (bearish). This is neutral for gold.
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
Model Gold Portfolio: Now: Long (Bullish) (1/27)
Technical Read: Gold suffered another bout of selling today, however prices picked up support (both today and on the 29th) at the 120 level (GLD basis). The 120 level is just above the surprise Swiss bank announcement gap. Nonlinear trading analysis is supportive. We should pick up risk buying going into the weekend as well. The long signal continues to be viable.
Backdrop:
- Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 powered off the recent lows but big caps are still range bound (1990-2070, S&P 500 basis). Greek/ECB negotiation headlines were pretty much negative but there are rumors behind the scenes that the Greek government has made assurances to work to make this summer’s debt payments. This is neutral for gold.
- Ponderable –The Super Bowl (America’s pinnacle pro football game for the year) proved to be a nail biter to the end. The curious ending featured the Seahawks miraculously getting the ball then diving a couple of feet from the goal line. With a talented running back the obvious play was to pound the ball for the score and the win. But fans were astonished to see the Seahawks try a risky over-the-middle pass that was then intercepted. They turned a victory into a loss. The lesson for traders, is to not get too “fancy”. Look for an edge, use the basic trading rules and remember not to overstay the trade.
- Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
- Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the bond trading signals. Currently available.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”
“Use nonlinear research to help determine the future direction of the S&P and trading can become much less complex.” GH Garrett
Technical Read: Gold popped up at the opening today before selling off the highs by the end of trading. The GLD is now at the high-end of its recent trading range. From a chart standpoint the trend is still down. Nonlinear trading analysis readings are now signaling more selling pressure waits. I do not expect 115 (GLD basis) to hold. The model portfolio is now bearish (today’s signal).
