Tag Archives: Nonlinear signals

Bounced out, not short or long (GLD)

Model Notes: This is a quick post with just one chart (gold). I just posted based on Friday’s data. So it is one day out and only gold changed.

Current Market rotation: S&P (US Bonds for Feb), Core market rotation:  Gold (wheat for Feb)

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) exit long signal = 1/25 (TSP=waiting).The $S&P is now long 1/14 (TSP=1880.33). Wheat long signal 1/22 (TSP= 492)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160125gGold (current core market): The gold market rallied back to the sell level (GLD basis). If the systems were right on the downtrend we never would have made it this far up. The models figure exit long today while we figure this out.
  • Wheat (Feb core market , no chart provided): Still long.
  • S&P 500 (Jan. featured market, no chart provided): Still long.
  • US Bonds (Feb Feature, no chart provided): Waiting for a signal. Flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering reasonable rates to institutional clients. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info. I have a limited number of slots to fill.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

Gutsy Buy Paying Off (SPX)

Model Notes: The S&P buy (TSP near 1880) was a gutsy call at the time but Friday’s action managed close the market north of the entry point. So we are in sync on the equities. Early week action for gold was not as helpful for the Mummy. Our sell level (over 106) was excellent but this week the yellow metal creeped back up (closing the week at 105). So we are in sync but we will be watchful this week.

Market rotation: S&P (US Bonds for Feb), Core market rotation:  Gold (wheat for Feb)

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) Sell signal = 1/06 (TSP=106.15).The $S&P is now long 1/14 (TSP=1880.33).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160122gGold (current core market): The gold market put together a rally against the down trend not enough to take out the previous high. If stocks can hold it together, I would expect it would siphon off buyers of the yellow metal. The model gold portfolio is still short.
  • CTM160122wWheat (Feb core market): I am starting the cycle early as I have identified a buy based on Friday’s data. Here we go!
  • CTM160122sS&P 500 (Jan. featured market): We have a buy signal based on today’s data with the TSP coming based on tomorrow’s trading. The S&P 500 is very oversold and quite a bit of negative news has come out. The market is paused for a rebound here and the models are confirming this. The S&P model is now positive.
  • US Bonds (Feb Feature, no chart provided): I am very, very eager to apply my latest models to this market. Our first encounter was not the best for the Mummy. Round two is about to begin!

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering reasonable rates to institutional clients. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info. I have a limited number of slots to fill.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”

S&P 500 Gets a Buy (SPX)

Model Notes: The gold market weakens and the theoretical signal price (TSP) ‘sell’ price proved to be the highest value for the last 30 days. The gold model is in sync. The S&P model signaled a buy today. The upcoming days will prove whether this is good but the fact the model avoided getting clobbered (it was flat) in the first week of January is enough to register the equity model to be in sync as well.

Featured market rotation: S&P (January), Core market rotation:  Gold.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) Sell signal = 1/06 (TSP=106.15).The $S&P is now long 1/14 (TSP=waiting).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160114gGold (current core market): The yellow metal had a tough day. If you think about it, the recent market weakness and the China economic deceleration point to disinflation and that is not great backdrop for gold. Technically, the Jan. 7 top appears intact. The model gold portfolio is short, positioned for retest of the lows of December.
  • CTM160114sS&P 500 (Jan. featured market): We have a buy signal based on today’s data with the TSP coming based on tomorrow’s trading. The S&P 500 is very oversold and quite a bit of negative news has come out. The market is paused for a rebound here and the models are confirming this. The S&P model is now positive.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering reasonable rates to institutional clients. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info. I have a limited number of slots to fill.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

A Brutal First Week Of The Year (SPX)

A Brutal First Week Of The Year (SPX)

Model Notes: The gold models sold well capturing the highest theoretical signal price (TSP) value of the last 30 days. The entry TSP was definitely at the low end of the recent range. So the models for the yellow metal are on track. The S&P models were just brought online (this is the featured market for January) and are trying to gauge a brutal sell-off for the first days of the new month. Kudos for not going bullish too early.

Additional: In the past, I featured gold (in the form of the GLD fund) as a non-rotational signal chart on Conquerthemummy.com postings. I am changing the status from non-rotational to “core.” The effect is that I will be posting signal charts for gold on odd numbered months, and wheat for even months.

Featured market rotation: S&P for January! Core market is gold.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) Sell signal = 1/06 (TSP=106.15).The $S&P is Neutral.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations/evaluations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160108gGold (current core market): Gold has benefitted from a series of geo-global events that popped the yellow metal high and far. The China economic slowdown, intensification of hostilities of rival Islamic factions and the North Korean nuclear tests were all factors. However the models turned bearish on Wednesday possibly indicating the fatigued bulls will be asking themselves “what else could go wrong?” Technically, the models are playing the range, selling the latest breakout. The model gold portfolio is short, positioned for fading strength.
  • CTM160108sS&P 500 (Jan. featured market): I am showing a rare weekly chart on my posts. The models are flat but a couple of things are coming together. Technically the S&P is approaching the lows of August and September (1875), so support is near. Also there is some evidence of a bullish seasonality in January based in part on tax related buying following the distributions of December. An interesting bounce could be in the making and we are waiting to see if our models confirm this. The S&P model is flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

A Sell In Gold (SPX, GLD)

Model Notes: The gold models seem to be playing the range, while the S&P models are undecided. Though we don’t know what the short TSP on gold signal will be , initially it looks like a positive position is being closed out.

Additional: In the past, I featured Gold (in the form of the GLD fund) as a non-rotational signal chart on Conquerthemummy.com postings. I am changing the status from non-rotational to “core.” The effect is that I will be posting signal charts for gold on odd numbered months, and wheat for even months

Featured market rotation: S&P for January! Core market is gold.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) Sell signal = 1/06 (TSP=waiting).The $S&P is Neutral.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160106gGold (current core market): Gold has received quite a kick start this new year with the China sell off, the North Korean nuclear test and the considerable rift in major rival Islamic sects. The models are now selling into strength (maybe thinking “what else could go wrong?”). Technically, the models are playing the range, selling the latest breakout. The model gold portfolio is now short.
  • CTM160106sS&P 500 (Jan. featured market): The selling is not yet over but it is unclear that we will go significantly lower either. The models don’t seem to be in the mood to pile on (meaning go with) the breakouts. The S&P model is flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

2016, Here We Go! (SPX, GLD)

Model Notes: January opened up with a China-inspired market selloff that had all the subtlety of a cannon salvo coming out of the mist. I have come to believe that non-linear analysis carries with it, some ability to see into the future. Hence the gold portfolio was on the right side of the surprise.

Additional: In the past, I featured Gold (in the form of the GLD fund) as a non-rotational signal chart on ConquertheMummy.com postings. I am changing the status from non-rotational to “core.” The effect is that I will be posting signal charts for gold on odd numbered months, and wheat for even months

Featured market rotation: S&P for January! Core market is gold.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) buy signal = 12/17 (TSP=102.04).The $S&P is Neutral.

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160105gGold (current core market): The jarring China sell off put a dose of pep in the step of gold, helping our previous long signal in this market. From a chart standpoint, the new year strength formed a higher bottom and setting a bullish tone for the yellow metal. Sellers should become more wary and this should lead to higher prices. The model gold portfolio remains long.
  • CTM160105sS&P 500 (Jan. featured market): Monday’s selling made me wonder if we could get a buy signal with the inclusion of Tuesday’s data. But alas the models are NOT signaling the weakness is over yet. Monday’s intraday lows were a hair lower than the Dec 14 lows. The bears are not through yet. The models are skeptical for initiating a position now. The S&P model is flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Running up to Christmas (BRL, GLD)

Model Notes: December is proving to be a dry well for the models. First gold. The ‘snapback’ day after the 12/17 reverse to long entry gave us a narrow loss on the previous short signal, price to price using the theoretical signal price (TSP to TSP). Since the reversal signal came at the monthly low (good). Since then prices are higher. The model is still in synch.  Next the Brazilian real. The 11/30 entry to the 12/15 exit was narrowly positive (good) but in the aftermath of the signal. Prices went higher. This is okay, but a little disappointing given the previous meager profit. Oh well. Looking on the bright side, we are nearing the Christmas Day observance of the birth of the savior. A time of good cheer and gift giving, so we are wishing you a MERRY Christmas!

If you find yourself with an extra hour and a half on your hands, I would recommend going to this link : http://florida.thejoyfm.com/headline/a-christmas-carol for a particularly powerful audio rendition of the classic  “Christmas Carol”  story. This should not fail to enhance your Christmas season spirit.

Featured market rotation: Brazilian real for December. S&P for January(!). Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold, GLD basis) buy signal = 12/17 (TSP=102.04), The Brazilian real is going flat today12/15 (TSP=3.883).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151222gGold: Gold popped up after the buy signal though there was some giveback today. The 100.50 support level has now been tested twice and held. This puts the yellow metal on a positive bias going into the holidays. The model gold portfolio remains long.
  • CTM151222rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): The exit long on the Dec 16 took advantage of an overbought market bumping its head against recent resistance but the market still climbed. The models are skeptical for the bulls. The real model is remains flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

The Fed Strikes Back! (BRL, GLD)

Model Notes: Again both models are in reasonable positions versus the current markets. Gold is fully reversing back to a long signal as of today, while the Brazilian real signal went flat earlier in the week. We can evaluate the gold trade when the theoretical signal price (TSP) becomes known tomorrow. The recent ‘real’ signal was a mildly positive trade (TSP to TSP). So we are holding our own on the signal front despite the Fed seemingly historic bias change. Historic? Well after all the months of talking, it sure feels historic.

Featured market rotation: .Brazilian real for December. S&P for January(!). Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) buy signal = 12/17 (TSP=waiting), The Brazilian real is going flat today12/15 (TSP=3.883).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day. It is more realistic for trading calculations.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151217gGold: Gold busted a gut to the downside today putting the GLD near its 100.50 near-term support level. The models flipped from a short to long bais on today’s action. With the Christmas vacations looming, one would hope serious selling would dry up. The model gold portfolio is now long.
  • CTM151217rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): On the Dec 16, the ‘real’ spiked and then sold way off those intra-day highs. The models are mixed on this market (and we are now flat) so we expect the recent resistance level to be a problem for the bulls (not to mention the strength of the US dollar over the last week). Range bound is the likely call for now. The real model is now flat.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis).

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Markets Are Getting Back in Sync (BRL, GLD)

Model Notes: Both the gold and real markets are getting back in sync with the signals. (short and long respectively) as fundamentals start to take over from the shock of the San Bernardino terror attack. This is good!

Featured market rotation: .Brazilian real for December.. S&P for January(!). Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) sell signal = 12/02 (TSP=101.76), The Brazilian real is going flat today 12/15 (TSP=waiting).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151215gGold: Gold continues to “creep” down in the aftermath of the Dec 4 spike. The impending expectations of a fed tighten are not playing well with the yellow metal. Higher rates mean a stronger dollar and a more potent governor on inflation, both of which are negative in this area. The next GLD support is at 100, and I expect a revisit to that area. The model gold portfolio is remains short.
  • CTM151215rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): The real picked up some strength and the model signaled an “exit Long” signal. Initially, it looks good as we are at the high end of the monthly range. The less than inspiring entry level hurt the favorable possibilities on this trade. We need another day before we can see if the trade was profitable. The real model is now flat..

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis)..

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

A Week after the Terror attacks (BRL, GLD)

Model Notes: Both the gold and real signals were not helped by the terror attack in San Bernardino, so we are looking for the true future trend and how we can get in sync with it.  Gold spiked up after the attack but the Dec 3 moved helped us with a higher sell level (TSP), The Dec 4 strength did hurt the signal but there was limited follow through. We are not that far out of the money, we will have to let this one go further. The real moved against us immediately after the attack as well. The initial weakness was good for the entry signal but subsequent weakness was not. The last two days the market found some strength

Featured market rotation: .Brazilian real for December (hello). S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) sell signal = 12/02 (TSP=101.76), The Brazilian real long signal 11/30 (TSP=3.853).

Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151208gGold: Gold lost buying pressure after the Dec 4 spike. GLD failed to pierce the recent high established on Nov 19 (104, GLD basis). I think the fund would have closed negative today, if not for the latter day strength in stocks. Anyway the last two day’s action in more negative than positive. We are only about a point away from the TSP. The model gold portfolio is remains short.
  • CTM151208rBrazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): The real got his in the aftermath of the attack news however the strength of the las two days has formed short term bottom that is a little higher than the previous one (3.72 versus 3.70). Technically, we should see some additional strength on the short-term The real model remains long.

Note: Non linear trading theme comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action (technical analysis)..

Premium offers:

  • I am now offering a more a la carte fee system for CTM research. Purchasers can now mix and match signals on various symbols that are currently available. Click on the ‘Fees’ tab for more info.
  • With deflationary forces becoming more dominant, top level, successful, investment strategies are going to become more reliant on ‘activity’ (trading). Check out ConquerTheMummy.com for trading signals that help!
  • Remember: Nonlinear trading analysis is “insider knowledge” (non-apparent) for standard technical analysis.
  • The post-mortems for the recent US dollar and the VIX (NEW) featured markets have been posted. To view it select the “Forex” or “US Equity” tabs (respectively) on ConquerTheMummy.com.

GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”