Models calling rates higher


  • Equity sell signal date= 9/29, TSP = 252.32
  • Vix buy signal date= 9/29, TSP = 9.45
  • $TNX (rates) buy signal date = 10/02, TSP = This Tuesday’s close

Model notes: Ok, now we have the models starting to make predictions, so here we go!

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price following the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Neutral Yields ($TNX): Rates look to have bottomed in early Sep and are now trending up. Nonlinear analysis gave the bullish nod as of today. Rates have been compressed down for a while, the spring board is set.
  • Short Trend Stocks (SPY): Friday’s close gave us the sell, at Monday’s closing price (TSP). In this case the models are fading an uptrend. The model read is that bluechips are over extended and a pause is now due. Vulnerable to selling!
  • Buy Trend Equity volatility ($VIX): Volatility, is inverse to bluechips. Interestingly, the vix held up we despite the market rise today.


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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2017, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in VIX trading.”