Up, Up, and Away (GLD)

Model Notes: Models are being challenged this week. On the gold front, we closed out a good trade, but the market soared in the aftermath. The simple truism is that you can’t make every nickel. Next we go to bonds. The 9/24 sell signal is still the current position, however bonds continue to creep against it. And the model is not changing. We are expecting a hike of some sort.

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. VIX for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Exit Long= 10/07 (TSP=109.14), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.36)

Note: TSP is calculated by using the close of the trading day after the signal day.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM151014gGold: The yellow metal (GLD basis) took a moonshot, as US/Russian tensions in the Syria have pretty much chased the sellers away. Leaving money on the table is not a great feeling, but much better to make some and bail than to be caught on the wrong side. So what now? Wait for the model reset and to identify the next trade. The model gold portfolio remains flat.
  • CTM151014bBonds (Oct Featured Market): TLO will not give up the ghost here and drop and this week saw bonds creep higher. There is a lot of speculation as to what the Fed will or will not do. The models do not see a lot of upside here.  The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”