Tag Archives: CNBC

Moving on up, CTM hedge fund

Hedge Fund stats: Start Date= 2/28, Total start value= $20,088.93. Current holdings TBT (450 shares, current price $41.72, total value=$21,434.45). Inception-to-date = +6.70% (less than a month!).

Model notes: Initially the models had to help us answer 2 questions, choose an asset class, choose a direction. How did we do? The models signaled bonds with the direction down (put another way, long yields, hence the TBT). The charts below indicate we made the right choice. There is a cherry on the sundae as well. Last week on CNBC, Melissa Lee questioned hot-hand-manager David Tepper as to whether he was short bonds. Tepper’s terse response was, “You bet your hiney!” Nonlinear analysis has us on the same side of the bond market as David Tepper.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Long Yields ($TNX): Yields continue to climb, and that is great. The $TNX is now near the highs of December (26.25-ish). So now what? Nonlinear analysis is still bullish. If you look at this as a trading range, the advantage is with the rate bulls. Other factors to consider are: the Fed is now hawkish on rates and Trump-o-nomics is adding a lot of enthusiasm about an economic rebound. The position looks good.
  • Neutral Stocks (counter factual, $SPX): Bluchips jumped on the first day of March but has been met with low amplitude selling since. You are starting to see some in the media start to pose this may be a reversal. My indicators are not showing that yet, instead we are simply pausing after a considerable, earlier bounce.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: We are changing our premium services for 2017. Stay tuned for the details of the new service to be offered. Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2017, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold trading.”

Getting Support off the $110

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (Signal 10/27).

CTM141111Technical Read: Gold picked up support today as the GLD bounced off the $110 level. This was to be expected as the previous down move was pretty extreme and placed the market in an oversold situation. I am looking for a trade but my readings are not positive for a buy. My expected returns calculations are very anemic (less than $1!). So the plan for the Mummy is to stay neutral and try to gauge the direction for a profitable move.


  • Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 continues to inch higher after the Nov 3rd pivot point. The chart action is a bit over-extended but there is no clear sign of reversal. My indications are still positive for stocks. This is bearish for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 – The US dollar is trending up against a backdrop of European deflation fears. In a recent interview (CNBC), Juergen Fitschen (German Banking Association) advised that it was “undeniably that we have slowed down recently” ahead of the anticipated German third quarter GDP release. Apparently the association chair was preparing traders for bad numbers. Germany economic growth is key for the faltering European economy. Serious economic contraction could be a bottomless pit for the world economy. Weakness in the Rhineland would likely spur the ECB to take dovish action, which would weaken the currency (euro) and be bearish for gold (via the dollar). By the way, the yen is having tough slogging against the dollar as well.
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquerTheMummy.com