Introducing the CTM hedge fund

Hedge Fund stats: Start Date= 2/28, Total value= $20,088.93 (86.76% invested, 13.24% cash), holdings TBT (450 shares, current price $38.73). YTD return= 0%.

Model notes: The general strategy is to bounce the portfolio between cash and several major asset classes. Currently I am tracking stocks (S&P 500) and Government bonds (or yields). We could see several more to follow. The current portfolio is heavily bullish government yields.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • Long Yields ($TNX): When you are investing, you look at the past but you must envision the future. Yields are at the low end of a range they have been bouncing around in during the last 3 months. Fundamentals are a plus here too, Fed sees higher rates and the economy feels like it might be revving up. Upside potential here.
  • Neutral Stocks (counter factual, SPY): Stocks have been trending up for the last 3 months. They may very well go higher, but equities could underperform as they have already moved strongly up. Yields to out perform?


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Is it just me, or would our premium ranking signals make a great (moderately priced) addition to any hedge fund strategy? Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star strategy on the books. Nonlinear portfolio construction can give you an edge. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2017, I am only going to take on 4 clients!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2017, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold trading.”