Models tag their old (but deadly) foe quickly. (GLD)

Dec-Jan Rotations: Core Mkt = Gold, Featured Mkt = Asset class Portfolio.

Signals: Gld = Sell 12/02 (TSP= 111.54), AC Portfolio= waiting to rebalance.

Model notes: The way I figure it, the market my models faced off with the most, is gold. So we have another round in early Dec with an early sell. The yellow metal is drifting down. So we wait and watch. The new asset class portfolio is a pause right now. I initially decided to wait for a ‘sea-change’ signal (an infrequent massive alignment) during the Dec-Jan cycle. After two weeks, I am starting to think the ‘sea-change’ was really about a week before the election. So now what? I need to find some type of signal change or shift to trigger the rebalance.

Note: ALL Mummy calculations use the TSP (Theoretical Signal Price)! The TSP metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161212gGold Trading Signals (Core). The general trend is down but it is not really accelerating, more like a decay. Anyway, the models seem to have tagged it. No near-term evidence of a reversal. No obvious support (you can make a case for 110-ish).
  • Asset Class Portfolio (Featured). I will be displaying the rankings as they occur and we can evaluate as the time period progresses. Expect a listing of three asset classes: SPY (stocks), TLO (bonds) and USO (energy).


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. nonlinear portfolio construction anyone? Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2017, I am only going to take on 4 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”