Gold signal goes flat (GLD)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat 8/15 (TSP= waiting), TBT= Long 8/09 (TSP= 30.73).

Model notes: The gold model previous buy signal was a little early, but the TSP after the drop bailed it out. The models are now going flat. This is not a bad idea. If you don’t quite feel with the market, step back and have another go later. The interest rate model buy has been rewarded by a TBT that has moved up. This model looks to be in sync with the market.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160815gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold has featured a lot of back and forth motion during this test period. We are about half way in the trading range (125-130, GLD basis) and this is probably a good place to get out. We may even make a profit (TSP to TSP). Taking a position at one of the two extremes in the range may make a lot more sense. Gold model is flat.
  • CTM160815bInterest Rates (Featured). Our interest rate model has done a little better in playing the range-bound movements. One interesting point, the model refuses to short rates. It senses higher rates are ahead!


Premium Research notes:

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

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GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”