Still in the range

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral, last signal 12/01 “exit long”

CTM141208Technical Read: Gold is going back and forth inside the range (approx. 112 to 117, GLD basis). The present technical read does not indicate enough energy (preponderance of sellers or buyers) to bust out the channel. So, we are back to the waiting game.


  • Catalyst 1 – The US dollar has broken out of its recent trading range. The currency back drop of US economic out performance is a key factor. The National Association for Business Economics posted an upbeat forecast for US GDP in 2015: 3.1%. Estimates for Europe and Japan are closer to 1%. This is bearish for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 – The S&P 500 dropped off today. Overall, the trend is still up and this week featured new highs. This is mildly negative for Gold.
  • Catalyst 3 – Two pro-democracy hunger strikers in Hong Kong withdrew. At least one cited health reasons behind the capitulation. The protests began in earnest over two months ago. Short-term the movement may be waning, but Is there a longer-term cycle at work here? Is the groundwork laid for future pro-democracy gains in Hong Kong and China?
  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for