Tag Archives: US Bond Trading

100414 – Zowie!

Model Gold Portfolio: Short, (signal=100114)

CTM141004Technical Read: Gold fell hard in Friday’s trading as longs didn’t want to wait for Monday to liquidate positions. The move established a breakdown from the previous trading range and undoubtable triggered many mechanical trend following systems. Our last two signals have the advantage of giving traders time to re-position before the trend change.  What now? This crack is sufficient to send reverberations through the system (margin calls feeding the selling), so we should see more selling ahead. We are chasing the mummy.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The leap in the dollar broke the back of the bulls and is going to make it hard for them to regroup going forward. Another issue: Currency trends have a reputation for lasting. This (again) is bearish for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 2 – Stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) did not help gold on Friday either. The explosive rally largely erased Wednesday’s significant selloff. Despite the recent equity gyrations, the Mummy considers the US equity market as neutral. This is bearish for gold now but will probably not be sustained.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar Mummy process for bonds. Treasuries halted their advance over the last couple of days. Our signal on this is neutral, so the Mummy is on the hunt for a new signal. A valuable signal for some institution. See the “Bond” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

100114 – Short Again!

Model Gold Portfolio: Now short, 100114 (from Neutral, 9/19 signal)

CTM141001Technical Read: Gold has been trying to form a trading bottom for almost 2 weeks, but it has been a sloppy, ill-defined bottom with not much conviction. Today my readings indicate the recent lows are not going to hold and Mummy watchers should expect lower prices ahead.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The dollar strength is throttling gold. Today gold managed an up day but one wonders if it would have been so if the S&P 500 hadn’t dropped 26 points. This is bearish for the yellow metal.
  • Catalyst 2 – The varied geo-political concerns (Hong Kong, Middle East and Ebola virus) are not really pumping the bulls here. The may provide some support going into a weekend. Mildly bullish.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond readings changed from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive signal.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com