091914 – Finally, Exit Short!

Model Portfolio: Signal Change: Now Exit Short (9/19) from Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140919Technical Read: Okay, here it is: the gold mummy signals are no longer bearish but are now neutral (AKA flat). This is not the same as a trend change to bullish but simply indicates the trend is indeterminate and that gold traders should consider pulling the plug on their shorts. Momentum indicators have moved from bearish to overextended.  This is primarily a technical call and I have no new ‘backdrop’ bullet points to share for now. Tip: Don’t let the gold mummy grab you!

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

091814 – Lower Yet

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140918Technical Read: The gold mummy may be crushing someone but it isn’t us. The yellow metal broke to new cycle lows on Wednesday. Simple trend analysis is pointing down. Momentum readings are still negative. No real bottom in sight, yet.

Backdrop:

  • The only people surprised from the FOMC post-meeting comments were the ones expecting some kind of change. Here are some Fed-speak terms: “considerable time” (the Fed does not want to be rushed in raising rates) and “Significant underutilization of labor resources” (deflation is still hanging around). World markets are keying on the latter and that is bearish for gold.
  • The US dollar is still ticking up. Various geo-political events are supportive. It will be interesting to see how the Scottish succession vote goes. The euro is not quite up to taking the dollar’s place on the world stage.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. The current read is bonds are expected to go lower (model portfolio sell signal 9/5). This is also negative for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

091116 – Waiting on Yellen

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140916Technical Read: Gold managed an uptick close today, but that masked two intra-day rallies that just couldn’t take hold. I am attributing this to some lightening on the shorts ahead of a news event.  Maybe some stop hunting too. Momentum readings are still negative and the down trend remains in place.  Lower highs and lower lows, the classic downtrend definition.

Backdrop:

  • The room is quiet, as the rows of reporters suck in their breath awaiting Yellen’s first words from the podium. The Federal reserve Chairwoman brings a fist down and says, “Blankety-Blank, this is it, no more QE and we are raising rates!” What is the chance of this happening? Not very likely. Europe is showing signs of contraction and there is considerable fear that a whiff of deflation is a step away. Not to mention the political fallout from the Democrats possibly facing re-election and a market correction. Expect the status quo and the wilting of gold prices.
  • US Government Bond vs gold comments (status still available). US Government bonds made a show of a rally but it failed by end of day. The bond trend is pointing to lower prices. So the pecking order for now: bonds go down, interest rates go up, the US dollar goes up, AND gold goes down.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

091114 – Slip Sliding Away

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)CTM140911

Technical Read: Today’s closing gold price is now at the approximate levels of the late May/ early June lows (support level).   However, the downtrend is pretty solid and momentum readings are very bearish. I expect lower prices. One noted gold analyst I spoke to advised $1200 is not out of the question. I agree.

Backdrop:

  • Obama announced his strategy for dealing with ISIS (or ISIL with the “L” standing for Levant, a term for the Middle East area). The US president plans to use US airpower to degrade ISIS assets and form a coalition of partners, whom will provide ground fighters. This should probably viewed as a lessening of global risk as ISIS will now have cohesive resistance. Bearish for gold.
  • (Long-term US Government Bond consulting is still available for hire). US Government bonds came under pressure again today. The trading uptrend has now been broken. This is bearish for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

090914 – Sept 4 low did not hold

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140909

Technical Read: As predicted on the weekend comments, the Sept 4 closing low did not hold. Lower lows spell the classical downtrend. I continue to seek an exit and discern the level that the current trend becomes overextended. I lament that my readings are not giving my two round trips per month, but I am glad to be on the right (short in this case) side of the market.  I guess in the end, a trader must take whatever situation the market gives.

Backdrop:

  • The quick headline news today was the new product announcements from Apple. The once maverick computer maker is beefing up their cell phone line and introducing a new personal electronic device: a watch. So what does this have to do with gold? The day started with expectations but the S&P 500 (and Apple stock) closed lower by the end the day. I think US stocks are going to be in a haze (largely non-trending) for a while. Neutral for gold.
  • Japan’s Cabinet Office revised the countries 2nd quarter GDP figure to -1.8 quarterly. This simply adds to the possible future theme of global deflation. Bearish for gold.
  • Long-term US Government bonds (as tracked by the TLO ETF) ticked lower today. Rates are now expected to be firmer by Conquer The Mummy website. This is bearish for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

090714 – Trading Down Trend

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

Technical Read: With spot gold dropping through the Aug 25CTM140907 closing low, the yellow metal has now formed a downtrend.  I had hoped to get some type of signal change last week (exit short or long) as I want this to be a trading website. I did the “grand slam” analysis this weekend but the current read is still coming up “Short Signal.” I do not expect Thursday’s closing low to hold.

Backdrop:

  • Mario Draghi (ECB president) advised .01 percent point cut in European interest rates and an asset purchase program last week. While the knee jerk reaction might be this act could be bullish for gold prices (i.e. inflationary), in practice this is sending the dollar higher and raising the haunting specter that Euro-Land is losing the war with deflation. Both of these are negative for gold.
  • The pace of manufacturing continued to expand with the ISM index of national factory activity up ticking to 59 in August. The previous month came in at 57.1 , this strength (and its European contrast) should underpin the dollar. Bearish for gold.
  • On this site I am inaugurating a premium service for following US Government long-term interest rates. It follows that asset class in a similar way to the gold signals. I am looking to consult with only one organization at a time. Check the ‘Premium” tab on this site for details. The very first signal, based on Friday’s (9/5/14) close is “Sell Short” on bonds. By the way, this is bearish for gold too.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy .com

083014 – No follow through, but no bottom.

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140830

Technical Read:  Spot gold managed a drifting rally this week but there was not much gusto (especially just ahead of a three-day weekend). The breakdown from the upward trending channel is the last technical event of significance.  Current readings are still bearish. I would note that (at least for the mummy site) this trade is getting long in the tooth. I hope to generate some type of signal this week.  If Labor Day passes without much excitement, I would think selling would reappear.

Backdrop:

  • This week (Friday actually), British Prime Minister David Cameron announced an increase in the country’s terrorist threat level to “severe” (the second highest level). One would think that would be good for gold, but the GLD fund actually closed down for the day. Maybe yellow metal watchers were calmed by Obama’s news conference comments that seemed much less urgent.
  • According to Eurostat, consumer prices rose just .3 year to year. The number was in the expected range but none the less at a five-year low.  My read on this is Europe is losing the race against the specter of deflation.  If decreasing prices gain the upper hand, we could end up with a depression.  This would be deadly for the highly fine-tuned economies of the West. And gold prices too.
  • I am just pilling on. I saw reports that Eurozone PMI (purchasing managers index) ticked down in August. July unemployment for the region came in at a pasty 11.5%.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher

082314 Follow through ahead?

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM082304

Technical Read:  Spot gold dropped through the recent upward trading channel. This combined with the penetration of the July 31st pivot point is bearish action for the yellow metal.  The question is will the breakdown continue?

Backdrop:

  • The US Dollar index broke out to the upside. This is bearish for gold.
  • Leading geo-political events (Gaza, Ukraine and ISIS expansion) are still active but the unrest is largely factored in the market.  At this point, some new accelerant needs to be added to bounce gold higher. Bearish for gold.
  • This week’s Janet Yellen comments from the annual Federal Reserve conference at Jackson Hole were highly anticipated by market participants trying to gauge the future path interest rates. However, the remarks seemed designed to give the Central Bank plenty of latitude in keeping the asset purchase program in place. Interest rates drifted lower in the wake of the event. Bearish for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher

081614 Whew!

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM081614

 

Technical Read:  Spot gold dropped through the recent 6 day trading range but rallied back into the channel by the end of the day. However, GLD (which has a longer US trading day) was not able to regain its footing. Friday’s trading indicates that gold is becoming susceptible to down drafts.

Backdrop:

  • The US Dollar index was soft on Friday as well but showed relative strength versus gold. This is bearish for gold.
  • The latest chapter in the unfolding Ukraine story now revolves around a caravan of supply trucks Russia is trying to insert into the Ukraine. This is less scary than some of the previous stories. Bearish for gold.
  • The US Commerce Department reported that retail sales flat lined in July (June readings were not very strong either). Remember, if a so-so economy meets a Fed getting ready to exit (to some degree) the central bank’s asset purchase program – Could a round of deflation be far behind (the interest rate market is buying this)? Bearish for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher

080514 – Lower Highs

Model Portfolio Status: Short signal (7/31).

CTM080514

Technical Read:  Spot gold continues to be unable to regain the $1300 level (the most recent attempt to stage a rally was today). Currently, the weakness is more of a “drip-drip” affair not a powerful decline. From a technical analysis stand point, a turn-around does not seem at hand.

Ambiance Backdrop:

  • Stocks fell back today, with the S&P 500 putting in its lowest close in 2 months. Economic data has generally been supportive (unemployment ticked down to 6.2% in July and consumer sentiment at 81.8), but the looming consideration of the Fed exiting its asset purchase program is going to be a specter in the future. Can the financial markets weather the rise in interest rates? The question is going to revolve around deflation. Will it come knocking? If deflation does materialize gold will not be unscathed.
  • The geopolitical back drop is still supportive. Unrest in the Middle East and the Ukraine gives gold sellers a pause but the associated strength in the dollar (the US Dollar Index has climbed steadily since June) has partially negated this.
  • 10 Year Note rates appear to be base building at higher levels than the lows of May. If interest rates manage to rally, this will not be favorable for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher (8/05/14)