Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (Signal 10/27).

Technical Read: Gold picked up support today as the GLD bounced off the $110 level. This was to be expected as the previous down move was pretty extreme and placed the market in an oversold situation. I am looking for a trade but my readings are not positive for a buy. My expected returns calculations are very anemic (less than $1!). So the plan for the Mummy is to stay neutral and try to gauge the direction for a profitable move.

Backdrop:

• Catalyst 1 – The S&P 500 continues to inch higher after the Nov 3^rd pivot point. The chart action is a bit over-extended but there is no clear sign of reversal. My indications are still positive for stocks. This is bearish for gold.
• Catalyst 2 – The US dollar is trending up against a backdrop of European deflation fears. In a recent interview (CNBC), Juergen Fitschen (German Banking Association) advised that it was “undeniably that we have slowed down recently” ahead of the anticipated German third quarter GDP release. Apparently the association chair was preparing traders for bad numbers. Germany economic growth is key for the faltering European economy. Serious economic contraction could be a bottomless pit for the world economy. Weakness in the Rhineland would likely spur the ECB to take dovish action, which would weaken the currency (euro) and be bearish for gold (via the dollar). By the way, the yen is having tough slogging against the dollar as well.
• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquerTheMummy.com