093014 – The Bears Press Their Attack

Model Gold Portfolio: Neutral (9/19 signal, exit short)

CTM140930Technical Read: Today’s gold trading was a turbulent affair. Overnight selling set the stage for a gap-down opening in COMEX trading. There was a morning rally but it failed by the end of the day.  At the close, GLD held at the approximate low levels of the recent pause. It was a long day for the bulls (not as long for the Mummy as our signal was neutral). My readings are not indicating significantly lower prices.

Backdrop:

  • Catalyst 1 – The strength of the US Dollar is pressuring gold prices and carries with it the whiff of global deflation (dollar strength and deflation are riding in the same car these days, unfortunately it is hearse). This is bearish for gold.
  • Catalyst 2 – Hong Kong demonstrations (and the police response) has taken less confrontational stance today as local politicians struggle to find a way out. This is bullish for gold as it is a new (and developing) situation.
  • Catalyst 3 – The verification of another victim of the Ebola virus in the US is probably not a market mover. But it does serve as a point of concern of thisng to come.
  • US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar process to the gold comments for bonds. See the “Bond” tab for more info. Recently (9/19), the bond readings changed from short to exit short (neutral) and this has been a productive signal.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

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