Model Gold Portfolio: Short Position, (signal= Oct 1)

Technical Read: This has been a tough rally for the Mummy website. The initial short position went our way but the 3 week rally has been painful with only two down days.  The lift seems to feature a lack of selling. GLD is picking up some resistance just north of the 120 level. A real reversal should dip below 119 this week. Near-term, gold is over bought.

Backdrop:

• Catalyst 1 – The US dollar initially traded lower but reversed to positive by the end of the day. Watch for follow-through buying on Wednesday. A close above 85.50 will be negative for the yellow metal.
• Catalyst 2 – The end-of-week rally in stocks garnered a fair amount of skepticism over the weekend from technically oriented pundits. The Monday/Tuesday follow-through buying has been quite powerful. My indicators do not signal a downtrend is in effect. If equities hold here, some of the fear theme should be sucked out of market watchers. This is bearish for gold.
• Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquerTheMummy.com