Technical Read:  Spot gold prices fell as Mid-East violence concerns took a back seat to US economic data today during pre-holiday.  The technical damage was limited as the yellow rebounded somewhat by the close of trading. The near-term trend is still up and prices are still ahead of the 6/27 close (the last buy-trend signal). The model portfolio is still long. At this point, I would categorize today’s move as a temporary reaction, not a trend change.

What is next? The jobless data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in stronger than expected (288k for June, expectations were lower, closer to 220k). The number led to a jump in interest rates (the 10-yr yield briefly punched to monthly highs). By the close of the day, yields were off their intra-day apex prices. Significant upside changes in interest rates are bearish for gold prices at these levels.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher